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Thursday Morning Update

Tracking Some Rain Soon

Posted: Updated:
The next 48 hours may offer some spotty showers or possibly some drizzle or fog in a few locations, but the overall chance across eastern OK remains very low.   Temps will slowly climb to above seasonal averages, and the clouds will become the dominant sky feature.   We may not see total clearing until sometime next week, but a few sun breaks may continue to be possible for the next few days.  Our main storm system of interest will be arriving Sunday from the west with a high likelihood of rain and a few rumbles of thunder late Sunday evening.

The upper air flow continues to be dominated by a north to northwesterly upper air flow brushing the Missouri Valley, and a southern stream flow across the desert southwest into the Lone Star State.   A few weak disturbances will flow from the northwest to the southeast over the eastern OK area for the next day with minor impacts.   Southerly surface flow will keep low level moisture increasing across the area and this may result in some sprinkles or drizzle in some areas, with some patchy fog in others.   The chance will remain low for northeastern OK with a slightly higher chance Friday morning across the Red River Valley region of southeastern OK.   This morning we're tracking a few sprinkles across extreme northeastern OK and northwestern Arkansas. 

This weekend the main trough over the Great Lakes region will move eastward as a new trough emerges out of the western U.S.   This system will move across the desert southwest Saturday and eject over Oklahoma Sunday with rain and thunderstorm activity likely.   The GFS and EURO are now closer together.   Both sets offer similar paths with the upper air system.   Rain will begin across western OK Sunday midday to afternoon and move eastward by late afternoon and evening into the eastern third of the state.   Enough instability and convective energy will be present to offer some rumbles of thunder but most precip will be some steady rain.   The system should clear most of eastern OK pre-dawn Monday with any back side wrap around moisture confined to southeastern Kansas.   I don't think the temps will be cold enough with the departing system to change any Monday moisture into wintry precip.   The actual chance for Monday precipitation will remain very low after the early morning hours.

Temperatures today will move into the lower 50s along with southeast winds around 10 mph.    Our readings will gradually increase, both morning lows and daytime highs, as southerly flow keeps us above normal into the weekend.    Morning lows in the 50s will be followed by afternoon highs in the mid 60s this weekend.    As the Sunday system exits the region, some colder air will eventually filter southward into the state.   We may begin Monday morning in the 50s but fall into the mid or upper 40s by the afternoon along with gusty northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph.

The temperatures Tuesday through Thursday of next week will be slightly below the seasonal average with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

Another system appears likely by the end of next week.  We'll watch the system and make suggestions and updates when appropriate.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone


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