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Monday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Turning Cooler

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The powerful upper level system that brought rain and thunderstorm activity to the area yesterday evening is now rapidly lifting northeast away from the state.   Strong west to northwest winds will be likely today across the state as cooler and drier air punches across Oklahoma.  This should give us a break from the fog!  Temps may start in the 50s early this morning, fall into the mid-40s, and then rise back to the lower 50s later this afternoon with decreasing clouds and sunshine.   The rest of the week appears cool with morning lows in the 20s and 30s followed by daytime highs in the 40s.   A series of disturbances will move near or over part of the state later this week with increasing rain chances across part of Oklahoma. 

The upper air low has been characterized by two distinct areas of jet stream activity.   The northern stream positioned across the northern third of the country has kept the bitter cold air north, while the southern stream, aided by a trough on the west coast, has brought a few disturbances into the state.   It's this southern stream that will once again be our player for the end of the week.   The west coast trough will eventually move eastward into the southern plains by the weekend with increasing rain chances.  Before the main trough ejects, a series of small disturbances should round of the base of the trough and move across part of the desert southwest and the southern plains by Wednesday into Thursday.   This first wave will help to produce scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two Wednesday into Thursday.  The coverage may support higher pops across the southern half of the state, but we're planning to include the Tulsa metro with a decent shot of precipitation with this lead wave.  After Thursday morning, we're in a holding pattern until the next wave arrives Friday.

The stronger lift (main trough) will begin moving eastward Thursday into Friday but should weaken as it approaches the state Friday into Saturday.   The result will be a continuation of rain-storm chances for the region Friday.    The west coast should reload with yet another pacific trough that will eventually eject across the southwestern U.S. just before Christmas bringing more rain and thunderstorm chances to part of the southern plains.   The trajectory of these extremely early model runs would suggest a southern route with the main lobe of energy later this weekend into the early part of the Christmas Holiday.   The bitterly cold air seems locked up to the north at this point, but one should never rule out a southward intrusion of some colder air this time of year.     Basically:   Stay tuned.   Colder air will eventually return.    

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

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