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Tuesday Morning Update

Tracking Another Rain Chance

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The clouds that blanketed the area yesterday afternoon have reformed overnight out of southeastern Kansas and continue this morning across northeastern OK.   The clouds should thin out around the 10am hour, if not sooner, but sometimes the models over compensate and clear these types of clouds too quickly.   Basically, we'll all be waiting and watching!  Temps will start this morning near freezing and move into the lower or mid-40s for afternoon highs with north winds at 10 mph.   At least two waves will brush the state for the remainder of the week bringing a chance for showers back to portions of eastern OK.   The first disturbance arrives Wednesday evening and the second Friday.   Data this morning suggest the Friday system may remain too far south and southeast to have a major impact on the region.   We'll more than likely be lowering our rain chances for the 2nd system.  But the first wave should bring some rain back to the state.

The upper air flow will remain somewhat progressive with a split flow pattern in place across the nation.  The southern stream-split will be ejecting another wave at the base of the Pacific coast trough soon.  This lead wave will bring the clouds back to the area Wednesday with increasing rain chances Wednesday night late into Thursday morning.   The higher coverage will remain across far southeastern OK and northeastern Texas, but I'm inclined to keep a good chance of showers in the forecast for the eastern third of the state Wednesday late into Thursday morning. 

The second wave appears stronger, but in the last model runs, has been trending more south and southeast with its major impact.   I'm somewhat leery of this solution.   I'm leaning toward lowering this probability slightly, but may hang for one more day at our 40 pop just in case this thing wiggles back to the north.   

Temperatures for the rest of the week appear chilly.   Morning lows will move into the 30s but daytime highs will level-off in the lower 40s for the rest of the week.   The weekend should feature dry but cold conditions with highs in the mid-40s Saturday and into the upper 40s near 50 Sunday.

Now get ready for more cold air next week around the Christmas Holiday.  We may have  more to discuss regarding the Christmas Holiday over the next few days. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone


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