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Thursday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Drizzle And Cold Today

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The first wave is lifting rapidly northeast this morning with the second trough nearing the state Friday.   This second system appears too far south for a major impact across our immediate areas of concern, but I'll keep a slight chance of light showers in the forecast Friday.   Slightly higher chances will remain across far southeastern OK with the highest chances across Texas.   Temps today will move into the lower 40s with cloudy conditions along with east to northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph.    The clouds and cooler air will remain Friday with highs in the lower to mid-40s.   

This morning pockets of mist and drizzle will remain, at least for the next few hours, before we it gradually ends around midday around Tulsa.  There could be a few small areas of sprinkles that move across far northern OK and southern Kansas later today.   This probability will remain low.

The upper air pattern will undergo some changes for the next several days.   We've been experiencing several southern stream systems as the northern stream has kept all of the bitterly cold air locked up to the north.    We're continuing to see signs in the data of colder air spilling southward next week.   The first intrusion will occur Monday night into Tuesday, but this air mass will only bring a minor cool down.   A few showers will be possible, but the higher chances may end up east or southeast of the Tulsa metro.   This air mass will take Monday's highs in the lower 50s and only drop them a few degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The second and much stronger surge will more than likely occur Christmas Day or evening.   A strong system will develop across the northern and Midwest with colder air rushing southward into the central and southern plains.   A surface low may form out of the Rockies and bring a chance for some precipitation to the state Christmas Night or the following day.   EURO and GFS data both support a significant southward push of colder air with highs dropping into the 30s but the EURO is anywhere from a day to two days behind the GFS depending on the run time of the model.   It's still early, but the models also continue supporting some light wintry precip possibilities for the end of next week into the weekend.   I must stress, the chance will remain very low for this forecast cycle update.    

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day!
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