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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Still Cold, Chance Snow Wednesday; Warmer After That

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As you can see by the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, this has been another one of those cold, winter days across the state. In fact, that is pretty much what we have had since the year began and going back into December for that matter.

Keep in mind, this is normally our coldest time of year anyway, but since the 61 we recorded for a daytime high back on Dec 26, our daytime highs have been below normal every day since.

Normally we would be around the 47 or 48 degree mark for a daytime high and so far we are averaging about 10 degrees below that.

As you can see on our forecast page, we will finally get a break in these abnormally cold conditions in time for the coming weekend, but we still have a couple of more very cold days between now and then, along with at least a slight chance of some wintry precipitation.

Those cold northerly winds today have not only kept us very cold, but have also brought in dry air.

Notice the dew point temperature map, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Keep in mind the dew point is the temperature of saturation and can be at times a reasonable indicator of overnight low temperatures.

As you can see, most of the state has teens or single digits and the northerly winds continue to bring drier air for the more southern counties as well. Those northerly winds will continue at 8-15 mph through the overnight hours and much of the day Tuesday.

Together with morning lows in the upper teens, that will make for some miserable wind chill values down into the single digits again.

Daytime highs for Tue/Wed will struggle to get much above the freezing mark along with northerly winds both days. At least we will get to some sunshine during the day Tuesday before the clouds move back in that night and pretty much overcast skies for Wednesday.

The clouds returning for Wednesday are due to some energy aloft that will be moving across the state.

There remains some uncertainty regarding just how strong this system will be, as these systems can sometimes pull a surprise. The latest and greatest data has been indicating it will be weakening as it shears eastward and it does not have a lot of moisture to work with anyway.

Guidance from several days ago strongly suggested this system would produce some decent snow cover for much of the state, but given what we can see now, it looks more like just a dusting or just some flurries from time to time on Wednesday.

At any rate, barring any surprises there are not expected to be any travel issues from this particular system.

After that, the strongly amplified pattern that has dominated for several weeks now will finally break down, at least for a while. That will allow a more zonal, or west to east, pattern aloft, which means the cold fronts that come through, will be, generally, coming from the Pacific instead of Canada. Thus, the moderating temperatures we can look forward to for the coming weekend.

Not only that, but if you look at the 8-14 day longer range guidance, temperatures are expected to average above normal during that period along with a decent shot at some moisture.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot.

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