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Tuesday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cold Air Hangs Around, But Warmer This Weekend

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The cold front that brought the chilly air mass to the area yesterday is well south of the region this morning.   Partial clearing overnight has resulted in morning lows dropping into the upper teens and lower 20s with northeast winds around 10 mph.   Afternoon highs will move into the mid-30s today with increasing clouds this afternoon.  Our next chance of light precipitation arrives Wednesday, but most locations will remain dry.   After Wednesday, a gradual warming trend is likely to occur into the weekend. 

The upper air pattern will support bringing a weak storm system near the state later tonight into tomorrow, but has it arrives, the atmosphere will begin to " shear out" the system.   The net impact will be to lower our probability for snow.   I should probably take out this pop from the forecast, but will leave a small 10% just in case a snow shower or flurry develops.   A few days ago this system appeared to be very robust in the model data.   A trough across the northern third of the nation will drop southward today in advance of our southern stream disturbance.  This early arriving northern wave will effectively push the southern stream system southward across Texas while shearing the top of the disturbance.  

The EURO continues to support some very light snow flurries or brief showers across part of the region, scattered at best.   The GFS, on the other hand, offers very little in the way of accumulation.   Our forecast will keep only a 10% chance of snow or flurries in the forecast beginning early Wednesday morning with no accumulations likely.   Temps will remain chilly both today and Wednesday with highs only in the 30s. 

After the Wednesday system passes the state, the upper air pattern eventually changes bringing warming temperatures back to the region.   Temperature descriptions are of course relative, but compared to the lower 30s, daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s will constitute a nice warming trend.   We may take these numbers up slightly from computer projections and place some lower 60s on the map Friday and Saturday.

The next system would be arriving into the middle of next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances.   And no...we're not finished with winter or the cold air.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV
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