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Tuesday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cooler Air Returns And Showers North Of Tulsa

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A cold front is sliding south of the area this morning and this will bring temperatures down 10 to 12 degrees compared to yesterday's readings.  These daytime highs will still be above seasonal averages today and tomorrow.   North winds are likely in the 10 mph range for most of the day, but a few slightly higher gusts would be possible.   Most models continue to depict a small area of showers or sprinkles developing later today along the OK and Kansas state line vicinity as a weak upper level impulse moves eastward over the area.   The lower level of the atmosphere will remain very dry and this may act to off-set the potential of the precipitation in the area.   But I'll more than likely continue keeping a chance for some light sprinkles or showers across the northern sections of the area from approximately 9am till 5pm or so. 

Another surge of colder air will arrive later tonight and this will act to keep daytime highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow and Thursday with north winds remaining across the area.   

A stronger upper level system will dive southeast in the northwest flow aloft producing rain across a larger area of the southern plains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but we continue to think the majority of this system will remain to the south or southwest of the Tulsa metro.   Locations across southern OK and north TX will have the highest chances in our vicinity with the majority of the precipitation falling as liquid.   This system will expand across  a large portion of central Texas.  There will be a very small window early Thursday morning of some light sleet or snow showers on the northern fringe of the system, but this should remain south or southwest of the metro, mainly across west-central OK.   Our chances will remain around 20% for the late Wed and early Thursday morning period.

Temps following the mid-week system will remain cool but not excessively cold.   We think the morning lows for the end of the week will remain in the upper 20s or lower 30s with afternoon highs Thursday near 47 and Friday into the mid-50s.  

The weekend should be dry and cool with morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s with daytime highs in the lower or mid-50s as another shot of colder air arrives Sunday into Monday.

We do not see any significant arctic air intrusions across the central or southern plains for the next 7 to 10 days.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV
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