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Monday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Blog: Warm Temperatures First Part Of The Week

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We're moving back into some unseasonably warm air for the first half of the week before a cold front arriving Thursday morning opens the door for a return to winter-time temperatures into the weekend.   A storm system will be nearing the state this weekend that may provide some precipitation for southern OK, but the confidence for this portion of the forecast must remain low at this moment.

Our temps are located in the 30s this morning and will quickly move into the mid and upper 60s later this afternoon with highs in the upper 60s near 70 with sunshine and winds from the southwest around 10 to15 mph.   Our fire danger, while not as high as yesterday, will be elevated for the next few days.  We'll see highs tomorrow into the lower 70s and Wednesday possibly into the mid or upper 70s.   Winds will increase speeds Wednesday in the 20 to 30 mph range from the southeast in advance of our next system.

The northwest flow aloft pattern will bring another front into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  This front will knock the highs back down into the 50s Thursday and then into the 40s Friday through the weekend.  Morning lows will be in the lower 30s Friday and Saturday, with lows in the upper 20s Sunday.

Model data support a strong looking low developing across the southwestern U.S. during the next 24 to 36 hour.   This low will become cut-off from the main flow and will be position over the desert southwest for the majority of the week.   Later this week, the low will get a kick eastward by a developing system across the Pacific Northwest.   As this occurs, our rain and precip chances will be increasing late Friday night into the weekend.   The data have not been consistent in the positioning of this ejecting low and the influence upon our state.  We think the majority of the system will remain across southern OK and Texas, similar to the last one, with mostly rain or some rain-sleet mixture for part of the weekend.   Our forecast will keep only low probabilities for this system across northern OK Friday night into Saturday morning.    The data this morning did shift the precip northward into our area of the state.   We'll be watching and making adjustments to the forecast as we draw closer to the weekend.

Regarding the major winter storm for the northeast.   A significant and potentially historic winter storm is forecast to rapidly intensify tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday across a large area of the northeast.   Blizzard warnings and winter storm watches and warnings are in place for a large portion of the highly populated regions of the northeast, including New York City and Boston.   Some locations in these regions may experience 20 to 30 inches of snowfall along with very cold air and strong winds.   Travel could become dangerous, and possibly impossible for some locations within the blizzard warning outline.   Air travel may be disrupted for longer than 36 hours.   If you're attempting to fly into these areas, be prepared to be stranded at the airport for longer than a day.   It's a real possibility.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone
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