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Tuesday Morning Update

Sunny and Mild Today

Posted: Updated:
Good morning.   While the northeast struggles with a major winter storm, eastern OK weather may be another day closer to perfect this afternoon with light winds, sunshine, and temperatures in the lower 70s! This current stretch of warmer air will only last another day before several systems near the area with impactful changes, including colder air, and some precipitation chances.  

This morning we find our local temps in the upper 30s near the metro with some cooler readings in the sheltered valleys of eastern OK.   A weak wind shift late last night is accounting for a north breeze this morning in the 5 to 10 mph range, but our winds will back from the south later today with sunshine and warmer conditions.   Temps should move into the upper 60s across far eastern OK and the lower 70s from Tulsa to near I-35.   Even though our wind speeds will be light, the fire danger remains a concern with low humidity values this afternoon.   Combined with the dry (dormant) vegetation, the fire danger remains slightly elevated today, but would be increasing tomorrow as stronger south winds develop over the region in advance of the first cold front to impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.   This front will bring temps back down into the lower 50s for Thursday afternoon highs, but no precipitation will be expected with the Thursday frontal passage.

The upper air flow will remain from the northwest for the middle to the end of the week.   A low pressure area in the southwestern U.S. appears to soon be “cut-off" from the southern stream flow, and will become nearly stationary (cut-off low) across the Baja region late this week into the weekend.  Most data support another mid-wave trough diving out of the Northwestern Canada region Friday and traveling southeast into the region by Saturday night and Sunday morning.   Friday into Saturday, abundant moisture will begin spreading from Texas into the state as the “cut-off" appears to begin a shearing process.   Rain should begin sometime late Friday night (or more than likely early Saturday morning) across the state and spread to the east during the day.   A cold rain would be possible Saturday with only light amounts.   

Saturday night into Sunday morning, as the northern stream “kicker" approaches,  temperatures will cool in the upper atmosphere down to the surface.   Any moisture remaining across southeastern Kansas or northeastern OK would have the chance to fall as snow or a sleet mixture for a very small window.   The last two runs of the EURO support some snow accumulations across far northeastern OK into southeastern Kansas but we anticipate these model runs will undergo more changes for another day or two before our confidence increases with any particular solution.   The GFS is much faster with the departing moisture and offers no significant signal for snow Sunday morning. 

The bottom line:  We'll need to mention the possibility of some wintry precipitation for a small window around Sunday morning, but the confidence remains very low.   The confidence is increasing for a wet and cold Saturday.

Temps will be warming both today and Wednesday before turning cooler Thursday and colder Friday.  The cold air would last this weekend with some improvement early next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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