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Thursday Morning Update

Colder Again Today

Posted: Updated:
Goodness.   Yesterday was nice.   But...yesterday is gone.   The strong arctic front rolled over the area late last night with strong winds and dropping temperatures.   The gusty north winds and colder air continues to move southward across the state.   Our afternoon highs may stay in the upper 20s or a few lower 30s.   A couple of flurries may occur today through the morning hours, but these would be few and far between.   The clouds will thin-out for a few hours this afternoon with partly sunny conditions for some locations. 

A weak wave will move into the western half of the state Friday and move east while weakening.   This wave should generate some light accumulating snow across western and southwestern OK.   Some light snow may extend westward into our southern regions south of the  I-40 corridor, but the odds will remain low.   Most data, and the expected pattern, supports the wave dampening as it moves eastward into the central part of the state.   Friday morning temperatures will remain the mid-teens with highs in the upper 20s.   Northeast or east winds will remain across most of eastern OK in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Saturday into Sunday present some forecast challenges.   The first challenge is to “peg " the temperature profile across eastern OK with some confidence.   The models have been flipping around over the last few days, sometimes with warmer runs, and others with colder outputs.   Late yesterday afternoon, and again this morning, most data now support a “colder " solution for northern OK Saturday.   This would mean temperatures Saturday morning in the upper teens with afternoon highs around freezing.   The column of air over northeastern OK should be sufficiently deep that any precipitation falling would be snow.   The atmosphere about 60 miles south may be different.   The column of air may support a mix of precipitation, including some sleet and snow.   Surface winds Saturday will begin from the east and then should back from the southeast later in the day.    This would normally have a tendency to increase temperatures during the afternoon, but this process may not occur until late Saturday evening into Sunday morning.    This would limit Sunday morning lows to the upper 20s and would push the highs to near 40.  

Now regarding precip chances Saturday:     Model output continues to show some signals for snow chances for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.   Most of this remains focused over the southern Kansas and northern OK vicinity.    We've made the necessary adjustments to the forecast by bringing the Saturday high down a few degrees, and changing the main precip type from mix to snow for northern OK.  This chance for Saturday snow will remain around 50.   It's not a “ lock” so keep checking for changes.

Sunday into Monday some leftover showers may occur across the northern or eastern sections, but we may have a relatively dry period Sunday afternoon into most of Monday before the next wave approaches the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.   This wave will have additional low level moisture and warmer temperatures across the eastern part of the state when it arrives.   The result will not be snow but thunderstorms.   Some elevated instability seems likely and would support some thunder Monday night into Tuesday morning.   Tuesday morning temps will start in the mid-30s and may move into some warmer air ( EURO) before the front passes the region bringing colder air back Wednesday.

Needless to post, these next few days will be very active in the pattern.   You're encouraged to check forecast updates frequently.   Winter forecasts can and do change, sometimes quickly and significantly, from one day-part to the next.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV
 


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