Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Chance For Showers Today
Monday, March 9th 2015, 3:02 AM CDT
The main upper level pattern remains unchanged from last Friday. The spit-flow pattern with the polar jet removed to the north will remain. This keeps the exceptionally cold air well north of the southern and central plains states for the next 7 days. Last week, data suggested another stout cold front would be entering the state by later this week. This does not appear to be the case as we dive into the data this morning. Relatively mild temperatures will be likely for the entire week with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs moving back into the 60s and a few lower 70s. Today's highs, however, will remain in the 50s with mostly cloudy conditions and the chance for some showers.
The southern stream is in the process of ejecting an upper level trough across Texas. This system was “cut-off" from the upper flow for most of last week around the Baja. The slow movement of the system will keep a chance of showers across the region today and possibly Tuesday morning pre-dawn before the system moves eastward. The over-all precipitation chances appear higher this morning in the data compared to yesterday, and we'll increase the pops for the forecast package this morning. The increase of clouds will keep highs in the lower or mid-50s later today along with east to southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph.
Once the trough clears the area later tonight or early Tuesday morning, the pattern remains rather benign through the end of the week. A mid-level low will develop over the state late Wednesday into Thursday before ejecting Friday and Saturday. This is a highly unusual pattern for early March. Surface moisture will be basically removed from the area later this week and no precipitation will be position in the forecast until possibly Friday into Saturday as the late week trough moves eastward. This pop would be in the form of a 10% or 20% chance, and only for the extreme eastern sections of the state.
Wind speeds and direction will be unusual for early March. Wind direction today will remain from the southeast around 10 mph. But later tonight into tomorrow, our surface winds will return from the north and remain either from the north or east for the remainder of the 7 day forecast period. Wind speeds will also be relatively light for the rest of the week compared to early March standards. Despite the wind direction and the presence of the mid-level low over the state for the middle of the week, temperatures will be leveling-off in the 60s and lower 70s Tuesday through Friday. The approaching weekend will feature morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday across far northeastern OK.
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