As posted for the last few days, the main upper level flow will present a developing mid-level trough near the state very soon. A surface reflection will form across southern Texas later today and begin moving northward. This solution has been in the global models for several days, but the faster arrival of the system was picked up by the NAM about 30 hours ago and is now supported by other model brethren. This means we'll be increasing the precipitation chances Thursday, keep a small chance Friday, and probably eradicate the early Saturday morning chance. The exact timing will continue to be re-fined, but a quick look this morning reveals a late-day Thursday or early evening arrival of the clouds and rain across the eastern third of the state. This system may reside near and east of Tulsa with little chance near I-30 or locations west. We'll keep our probability for the Tulsa area around 30% with much higher chances to the east. The system would linger into the first half of Friday with some rain before moving east-northeast as the main mid-level trough moves east of the state. This would bring mostly sunny and mild conditions into the region for the weekend with morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s near 70.
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