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Tuesday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm, Breezy With Chance For Thunderstorms

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A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for a short time pre-dawn across extreme northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.   These scattered storms are not severe, but will produce some thunder and lightning as they move northeast away from the state. 

A mid-level disturbance will move across central Kansas later today helping to bring a surface cold front southward into the state.   A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this front across eastern or southeastern OK this afternoon and evening.   If they form, they could be severe.   A layer of warm air aloft may suppress most thunderstorm activity, but we'll keep some chances for the eastern third of the area, basically along and east of the highway 69 corridor.   I will keep a slight chance for the Tulsa metro, but the slightly better areas will remain to our east between 4pm and 10pm.

As the front-dry line approach the area this afternoon, locations northwest of the Tulsa metro will briefly move into the drier air late today.   Gusty winds from the west and eventually northwest combined with the lower humidity will result in high fire danger issues across northwestern and north-central OK.    Daytime highs will move into the lower 80s near and east of Tulsa, and a few degrees warmer to our west. 

As the Tuesday mid-level disturbance quickly exits the region, another short to medium length wave will drop down into the Rockies and eject across the middle portion of the nation.   Surface winds will quickly back from the southeast Wednesday morning with low level moisture rapidly streaming northwest into the state.   Another surface cold front will slide southeast into the region Wednesday evening with showers and thunderstorms likely along and behind the boundary.   This front should clear southeastern OK by pre-dawn Thursday, and most precipitation will more than likely have ended for this time.   A few lingering showers may be possible, however, Thursday morning for a few hours across extreme eastern OK.   I will not include these Thursday morning pops on the 7 day planner.   Temperatures will cool down Thursday with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s.   Gusty northeast winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will be likely.

Friday the tail end of the short wave will move across the Missouri Valley  with colder air aloft and the potential for some very light precipitation.   Yesterday the data was hinting at some showers possibly mixed with a few snow-flakes.  The precipitation forecast this morning is not as " wet" for Friday, but the temperature profile continues to appear chilly.   We'll keep the slight pop Friday and also keep the lows in the 30s followed by highs in the 50s.  

This morning's data is not as robust with the Saturday morning freeze possibility.   But in order to not induce a lot of “flipping” in the forecast, I'll stick with some lower temps for another day before bringing these back out of the freezing category. 

Saturday afternoon highs will move into the mid-60s followed by a warmer Sunday with temperatures moving into the mid-70s.

The extended “pattern" will support at least two chances next week, possibly more, for thunderstorms to develop or move into the area.   We have entered into our “severe weather season" and you should always remain aware of your weather surroundings during the spring storm season.   

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV
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