The first dry line-cold front moved over the area yesterday afternoon producing a few strong to severe storms across extreme eastern OK.   The next system will quickly develop later today and bring a much higher probability for thunderstorms to a larger area this afternoon and tonight.   Some of the storms will be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind the primary threat.   Cooler conditions will follow Thursday into Friday with improving weather for the weekend.   

The upper air flow will quickly bring a stronger and deeper upper air trough across the region this afternoon and evening. Surface pressure has already started to fall to the west and southeast surface winds have backed across the area and will quickly bring low level moisture back into the region today.   A surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across southwestern to near central OK with a cold front extending along the I-44 region by 4pm this afternoon.   As the upper air trough draws near the region this afternoon, colder air aloft will begin to rapidly destabilize the atmosphere and storms will form.   A few discrete thunderstorms may develop during the first hour of the event, but the upper air flow being nearly parallel to the surface boundary should result in a cluster or a line of thunderstorms moving southeast by later tonight.   The tornado threat should be confined to the first hour or so of the event.  The last few runs of the Hr3 do suggest some discrete cells developing near northern OK early this afternoon.  As the front moves southeast, the updrafts may become elevated on the cool side of the boundary.   This would tend to keep any severe threat to some hail and gusty winds directly along the boundary as the event unfolds during the evening hours.   The rainfall rates could result in some localized drainage issues in low lying areas. 

National Weather Service Flash Flood Watch for Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Ottawa and Rogers counties from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday morning.

The upper trough should clear the state by 1 am to 6 am Thursday morning from the northwest to southeast.   This should cause the precipitation to end from the northwest to southeast by 4 am to 7 am Thursday morning, if not sooner.   Only the NAM has hinted at a slower clearing process, and I'll not include this in the Thursday forecast.  


Temperatures today will move into the 70s and lower 80s with Thursday morning lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s.


The upper air flow Thursday into most of the weekend will be from the northwest to southeast.   This is always a tricky flow.   Another trough should move over southeastern Kansas and northeastern OK Friday with a slight chance of showers or sprinkles during the morning hours.    The air aloft does not seem as cold in the data compared to the previous few days.   This means the chances for any snowflakes or mixing is rather low Friday morning.


Saturday could still see a few morning clouds and this should lower the possibility of freezing temps.   Afternoon highs in the mid-60s will be followed by highs in the 70s Sunday.


Next week could become active again Tuesday into Wednesday as a strong looking upper level low rolls across the southwestern U.S. and over the area.   The exact positioning and timing of this feature could have a big impact on severe weather possibilities for next week.    Stay tuned!


Springtime in the plains!


Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.


Have a super great day!   Remain aware of the weather this afternoon and evening as the front moves across the area.


Alan Crone
KOTV