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Thursday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cooler But Sunny Thursday

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A few showers will linger for a few hours this morning (pre-dawn) before the upper air disturbance clears the region.   Morning clouds will decrease allowing sunshine, north winds and cooler air this afternoon.   Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s today.    A northwest flow pattern will remain for the weekend with a slight chance of sprinkles or showers Friday morning near or northeast of the Tulsa metro.    The weekend appears pleasant but another system will near the area early next week.

Due to time constraints this morning, we'll not take a lot of time to discuss yesterday's severe weather event, including the tornado in Sand Springs.   I'll compose some additional thoughts about the severe weather event and share those Friday morning in this space.   Our weather appears to be in good shape today as the system quickly moves east of the region.   

The upper air flow will transition to a sharp northwest flow pattern, which can always throw us a curve ball on short notice.   The data has offered a small chance for some sprinkles or showers near or northeast of the area Friday morning, and possibly even Saturday morning, but the current trajectory suggests most of this will remain northeast of most of our area.     If you'll recall, earlier this week the temp profile in the data was much colder for Friday and Saturday.   The latest information suggest the profile will remain warm enough to keep any precip Friday morning all liquid, and temperatures Saturday morning would remain above freezing due to the influence of some early morning clouds and not as cold temps aloft.  

Our current forecast for Friday morning starts in the upper 30s with highs in the mid to upper 50s.   Saturday morning should bottom out around 37 to 41 and move into the upper 60s near 70 by afternoon.

Sunday could be tricky.   Some data suggest another front will slide southward, while other data keep the boundary north.   At this hour, we'll not change our forecast and keep the highs in the lower to mid-70s and will bring the boundary southward Sunday night with a slight chance of showers or storms.   The higher coverage should end up across southeastern OK.  

Early next week the pattern will change.   The southern stream will become active and eject another disturbance across the southern plains.   This will eventually lead to some thunderstorm chances, probably around Tuesday into Wednesday.    As usual, the extended models have some controversy, but we'll figure it out as we draw closer to the period.   Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV
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