Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Sunny And Mild
Monday, March 30th 2015, 3:08 AM CDT
We'll have plenty of surface based convective potential energy Wednesday through Friday with another storm system moving near the central and southern plains. The result will be increasing thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe, but a few wrinkles in the projected thermal profile may act to suppress some thunderstorm activity through some of the period.
A cold front moved across the area yesterday afternoon and is now positioned southward across north TX and extreme southern OK. This front will slowly move northward later tonight as a warm front. A few showers or storms may occur to our south today, and possibly one or two Tuesday across southern OK. Our chances for northern OK will remain very low through Tuesday afternoon.
The upper air flow will support a southern stream disturbance moving near the southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. A northern stream upper air low will drop down from the Canadian prairie provinces Tuesday into Wednesday and move southeast across the northern high plains later this week. A surface area of low pressure is expected to develop to our west and northwest in response to these systems nearing the southern plains. South winds will increase speeds and low level moisture will expand rapidly into the state. A few showers or storms will be possible early Wednesday morning as the low level jet may help to develop a couple of storms near the area as the warm front lifts northward through the area and reforms well north. This chance will also remain relatively low, but will be included for northern OK. If these form, some marginal hail could be produced.
Wednesday into Thursday abundant low level moisture will reside across the central and eastern part of the state with a strong surface low pressure area anchored across northwestern OK. Gusty southeast winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will be likely along with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Model thermal projections indicate the possibility of a capping inversion Wednesday across part of central and eastern OK for most of the day. This would act to limit but not totally prohibit storm development across the area. If storms do form Wednesday afternoon or evening severe weather would be likely across the region. The surface features would basically remain in place Thursday as the northern stream system continues to migrate across the central plains. This means the same (almost the same) set-up would remain Thursday across the southern plains with a chance for strong to severe storms across the area. Again, a capping inversion may be a complicating factor for development.
Friday a surface cold front is finally expected to move southeastward across the area with a chance of storms moving out of the area after the early morning hours. Strong north winds and cooler air would rush into the area by afternoon and evening with cooler and drier air dominating the area Friday night into Saturday.
Sunday into Monday, another upper level wave will approach the area allowing south winds, warmer conditions, and a slight chance of storms returning across the area Sunday night across southern OK.
Due to the possibility of the capping (layer of warm-air aloft) inversion, our probabilities for thunderstorms this week may remain low for any given period. But the chance for thunderstorms producing severe weather would still remain for Wednesday and Thursday despite the low chances on the 7 day planner.
Temperatures today will feature highs in the mid 70s along with northeast winds around 10 mph. Tuesday morning lows will begin in the lower to mid-50s and end around 80 with south winds returning across the area.
Wednesday and Thursday will feature morning lows in the 50s and 60s with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Gusty southeast winds will be likely for the middle of the week. Friday will feature lows in the 50s and highs in the mid-60s. Saturday will start cool with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s with highs in the 60s. Easter Sunday begins in the upper 30s and lower 40s and ends in the mid-60s with a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening across southern OK or north TX.
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Have a super great day!