Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warm March, Warm Start To April
Instead of going out like a lamb, this last day of March is trying to make things a little more interesting. However, the storms that are trying to develop do not have too much of a future and will be weakening during the overnight hours.
Another chance of a few showers and storms is expected again on Wednesday, but the better chance will likely be late Thursday into early Friday. That is when a strong cold front will be pushing across the state and it will be followed by much cooler conditions for Friday and Saturday.
First though, the month of March has been a warm one with a temperature that averaged more than one degree above normal. That is quite a contrast to the very cold February, which was more than 6 degrees colder than normal.
Of perhaps greater importance is that it was one of the few months in recent years that was wetter than normal. Total precipitation of 3.71” as officially measured at the airport is about ½” above normal. Unfortunately, the wet conditions were not distributed across the state, as you can see by the statewide totals, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Our western neighbors are still much too dry and this is the wettest time of year.
So, what are our prospects in the days ahead? As mentioned above, some showers and storms coming our way tonight will be weakening quickly and will be pretty much gone by morning. A few more scattered showers and storms may redevelop again on Wednesday, but that activity is expected to be rather spotty. The cold front moving through late Thursday into the day Friday will be the primary player for our next round of showers or storms and some of those may become severe. Right now, wind and/or hail look to be the primary threats.
Gusty southerly winds for Wednesday through the day Thursday will also make for a very warm start to April. Temperatures will be near 60 to start the day tomorrow and in the 60s to start the day Thursday. Daytime highs should be in the lower 80s again tomorrow, despite mostly cloudy skies and in the upper 70s to near 80 on Thursday. That will be followed by much cooler conditions for Friday with gusty northerly winds and afternoon temperatures generally running in the 50s to low 60s at best.
Clearing skies by that evening should give a clear start to the day Saturday. High pressure will be sitting on top of us so the winds will be light and the air much drier. As a result, don't be surprised if there are some patches of frost, particularly in the protected valleys that morning.
Light winds and lots of sunshine should get us back into the 60s that afternoon. Increasing southerly winds will continue through Easter Sunday and into the following week. As a result, moisture will quickly return along with a chance of rain.
Right now, Easter Sunday morning looks to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the 40s for sunrise services followed by increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of light rain later in the day. Afternoon temperatures in the 60s will be followed by 70s on Monday and near 80 on Tuesday. There will also be at least a chance of showers/storms for early next week.
After that, as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook graphics, temperatures should continue above normal along with the potential for some unsettled weather.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.