The main synoptic reasoning behind the forecast has not changed from the previous forecasts: the main upper level cut-off low currently near northeastern New Mexico will provide a continuation of thunderstorm chances for the southern plains through the weekend. A few of the storms could be strong to severe across eastern OK during this period. This system will exit the region early Sunday morning.
A few “left-over" showers and storms from last night's western OK activity continue moving eastward this morning. The chance for thunderstorm activity this morning remains as the western activity advances eastward. The chance may drop down by midday to early afternoon before ramping back up later tonight. This timing could change, but at this point, this seems like a good way to communicate our storm chances for the day. I'll encourage you to keep the rain gear handy today, tonight, and the weekend.
Later tonight as the main upper level low slowly advances eastward, more storms will develop to our west. One batch will develop across northwestern OK and move northeast into Kansas, while another area will try to develop to our southwest across part of Texas or southern OK. These storms would move east and northeast near our area Saturday morning. Regardless, the chances will also remain for thunderstorms developing and moving into the area later tonight, overnight, and through part of Saturday morning. A few of these storms could be strong to near severe, with the stronger cells located closer to the main upper level energy.
Saturday should feature showers and storms early, then another break followed by additional storm chances Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This time period by Saturday late afternoon into the evening hours may be our best window for strong to severe storms as the main upper level system will be across northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas. Surface instability may be hampered by earlier showers and storms.
Sunday morning the low is exiting the region with a surface cold front sweeping southeastward across the area bringing eventually drier air to the region. As the low moves east, colder air aloft may still provide a few low topped cells directly under the departing low, but this would be for a very short period and mainly across extreme NE Ok and NW Arkansas.
Monday and Tuesday look somewhat cool and dry, but another strong looking system approaches the area midweek with additional storm activity in the forecast around Wednesday and Thursday.
Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!
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