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Thursday Morning Update

Sunshine And Mild Weather

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The weather pattern will support dry and mild conditions today with warmer readings into the weekend.   Storm chances will return next week.

I'll keep the discussion on the short-side this morning!   It's basically a temperature forecast for the short-term, which still requires effort and analysis, but the chances for storms should remain void for a few days.

Get out and enjoy the weather.   Our weather pattern is being dominated by a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered slightly northwest of the region.   This will allow another mild afternoon with highs expected in the upper 70s near 80 for the metro.   North winds today will keep drier dews across the eastern OK area, but our pattern will be changing soon.   Warmer and moist air will be arriving during the weekend setting the stage for thunderstorms next week.

Operational data support the upper air pattern to bring a weak disturbance near the northern OK state line Sunday night into Monday morning.   We'll keep one or two storms in the forecast for the northern sections of the state during this period, but the chances will remain very low.  This will be represented by a 10% pop on the map, but could increase to a 20% opportunity by Monday morning across extreme northern OK and southeastern Kansas.

Another mid-level low is expected to develop across or near the Baja over the next few days with the southern stream becoming from the southwest to northeast across the southern and central plains.   If there's anything that's somewhat normal for a typical spring pattern it's a southwest flow aloft.

We'll soon have most of the players needed for thunderstorm development near the state next week and our storm chances will be increasing.   Today's data supports a negatively tilted trough swinging by the central plains Wednesday into Thursday.   We'll probably end up with storm chances during every day of the 7 day forecast early next week.   And some of the storms will eventually become strong to severe across part of the state, but it's way too early to pinpoint any certain location or day that will offer higher chances.  Our forecast will offer low chances for eastern OK Tuesday with increasing chances Wednesday into Thursday.  So enjoy the next few days of unseasonably quiet and calm spring weather across the state.

Thanks for reading the shortened version of the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV
 
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