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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Good Chance Showers/Storms Into Wednesday

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To serve as a reminder as to how fortunate we have been so far this summer, by this time during the summer of 2011 we had already recorded 31 days with triple digit temperatures, topping out at 113 on this date. The summer of 2012 was not much better with 27 days by this time and topping out at 112 on several days of that year. The total number of triple digit days for 2011 and 2012 was 44 and 38, respectively.

That puts the zero number of triple digits days so far this year in better perspective, in spite of the fact we have had a number of days in which the heat index had soared to around the 110 area. At least the last few days have seen lower dew point temperatures in the 60s, which has helped to keep that value under control as well.

But we are now in August, and the prospects for some triple digit heat are looking much more likely in the extended portion of the forecast. For the short-term, a series of systems aloft will be impacting the state for Tuesday into the day Wednesday bringing cloud cover, a good chance of showers/storms, and helping to hold temperatures down.

In fact, as you can see on the forecast page, we may not make it to 90 on Tuesday, with the cloudy skies and showers moving in during the morning hours, and at least some activity lingering through much of the day. Another system aloft will bring a stronger system down from KS for the Tuesday night Wednesday morning time frame and the combination of the two could produce an inch or two of rain. Notice the 3-day QPF map for example and you can see the heavier totals will likely be over the more northern counties. I only used a 3-day QPF map as the chances of any showers/storms beyond that time frame appear to be in the slim to none category.

After that, ridging aloft will become more dominant resulting in more sunshine as we head into the latter part of this week and the weekend. Kept our daytime temperatures below triple digits through the time frame as it appears we will have a decent rain footprint over the next two days and things are still very green and soils relatively moist. However, the ridging aloft that will be building as we head into next week looks to be the strongest of the summer and should result in the highest temperatures of the summer along with little or no mention of rain through much of next week and through that following weekend.

Notice the 8-14-day outlook graphics, for example, which strongly suggest much above normal temperatures and below normal chances of precipitation; would not be surprised to see our first triple digits during that time frame.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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