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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Another Chance Of Rain Before Heat Returns

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As you can see from the first map, temperatures from late this afternoon were as much as ten degrees or more below the same time on Monday. The second map shows the max/min temperatures across the state and it was very evident the impact the clouds and showers had on our daytime highs this afternoon. Temperatures were 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year and some barely made it to 80 degrees.

Quite frankly, was hoping to get a little more rain out of that particular system, but at least the more western counties did get a good soaking with more than an inch for some locations as the second map shows, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet. We will have another chance of showers, and perhaps some thunder, later tonight and into the morning hours of Wednesday as a complex of storms now located in NW KS is moving this way. However, those storms will also be weakening by the time they reach us and will primarily impact the more NE counties through the morning and into the early afternoon.

As you can see on the QPF map through Wednesday, the more NE locations could receive an inch or more but the totals should drop off rather quickly from there.

After that, our rain chances will be rather slim with only a remote chance of a few pop up showers or storms for the latter part of the week and into the weekend and primarily for the more northern counties at that. Reason is a weak boundary will be oscillating back and forth near the OK/KS state line over the course of the next few days and could possibly set off a storm or two in its vicinity. It will also play havoc with the winds as a light E to NE wind should prevail north of the boundary, light and variable winds near the boundary, and a more S or even SW wind south of the boundary.

Ordinarily, a boundary such as that would suggest a more active weather pattern, but conditions aloft will become less favorable due to upper level ridging strengthening over the state. That will provide an effective lid on all but perhaps one or two showers or storms that may be able to overcome the strong cap that will be developing in the next few days.

That also means more sunshine, and as you can see on our forecast page, the heat will be building back over us. In fact, would not be surprised if we have our first triple digits of the summer over the course of the weekend. Since the rain footprint for tonight and Wednesday should be rather minor for all but the far NE counties, the ground and the vegetation will start to dry out at least somewhat and given the intensity of the ridging aloft, then triple digit temperatures certainly look possible by Saturday or Sunday.

Of course, that is only part of the story as the heat index will also be more of an issue in the days ahead. Looks like the dew point temperature will hold in the lower 70s, so that the combination of heat and humidity will push the heat index well past 100 each day of this forecast cycle. So, after a break from the heat today, advise taking it easy with the outdoor activities in the days ahead.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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