TULSA, Oklahoma - The cold front is located south of the area this morning but a few showers and storms will linger across the southern third of the state for the next few hours before moving totally out of the area.   The chance for an isolated shower or storm will remain later today across extreme east-central or southeastern OK but the chance will be low.   Yesterday’s highs moved into the mid-90s but today we’ll see highs in the mid-80s with decreasing clouds and north breezes around 10 mph.   A second front moves across the area Thursday night into Friday morning bringing a nice taste of early fall-like weather to the region.   Showers and storms may accompany the Friday system for the early morning hours for part of northeastern OK.   Temperatures should slowly climb back to seasonal levels early next week.

The upper air pattern has changed.   A disturbance moved across the central plains yesterday and helped to shove a cold front southward across the area.   The pattern will undergo another change during the next few days as a deep vortex develops across the northeastern U.S. and the upper Midwest while a ridge forms across the west.   The result will be a northwest flow diving down over the state for the weekend.   Next week we anticipate the pattern to reverse itself with a strong trough developing across the west and the ridge forming to the east.   The southwest flow pattern next week will eventually bring a system into the central and southern plains sometime late next week.  In the short-term, we’re looking at a nice stretch of early fall-like weather unfolding across the area.

Temperatures this morning will drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s with afternoon highs in the mid-80s.   A few showers and storms may linger along the Red River Valley this morning but should exit the state soon.   Some hi-res data support one or two storms possible later this afternoon across extreme eastern or southeastern OK in-between the surface front the mid-level zone.   This chance will remain very low.   I’ll more than likely only include some very low end pops for this low end scenario.

Thursday has the potential to be the best weather day of the week with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs in the upper 80s with sunshine and light east winds.    Thursday night into Friday the next disturbance in the upper air flow will bring a surface front over the state.   The moisture content in the atmosphere should not be nearly as high as yesterday, but a few showers seem likely early Friday morning.    The run to run consistency regarding the precipitation output has not been solid.   I’ll keep only low mentions for showers for this time period until my confidence increases in any give scenario.   I should mention the last few runs have increased the precip output for this period.  

As the front passes the area Friday, northeast winds should bring down cooler and drier air behind the boundary by early Saturday morning.   This means the lows Saturday morning should start in the mid to upper 50s and highs finish around the mid to upper 70s!    The weekend looks great with Sunday exhibiting a minor warming trend with lows in the lower 50s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.   Next week the pattern changes again and we’ll see gradually increasing moisture and temperatures by the middle to end of next week. 

Enjoy the weather.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV