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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Fire Danger Remains A Concern

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Quite a temperature range today, Tulsa went from 48 this morning to 83 this afternoon. As you can see on the statewide max/min temperature map, it warmed up even more over the more SW counties. The cool morning temperatures are due to how dry the air is, which also contributed to a minimum relative humidity of 23% during the heat of the day. At least we had very light winds today to limit the fire danger potential.

Look for Wednesday to have more of the same, with pleasantly cool morning temperatures but much above normal afternoon temperatures.

By the way, the normal temperature range at this time of year is 74/51 for Tulsa to put things in perspective.

As you can see on our forecast page, Wed/Thu will be well above those values for our daytime highs, and would not be surprised if some locations see 90 Thursday afternoon. Relative humidity levels will be dropping into the 20% range again both days as well; that means fire danger will be a concern, particularly on Thursday when the winds will be stronger.

Another weak boundary will arrive during the day Wednesday, shifting our winds back to the NE at around 10-15 mph, so, some fire danger concerns with the somewhat stronger winds.

However, obviously that boundary is not cooling us off much, and, as mentioned, Thursday will be even warmer. The problem Thursday is that we will have a stronger southerly wind in advance of a stronger cool front that will be arriving that evening/night. Therefore, fire danger is more of a concern for Thursday.

This next cool front will be arriving shortly after sunset Thursday evening and quickly sweeping on across the state during the overnight hours. This system is moisture starved so only a slight chance of a few light showers is currently anticipated. Gusty northerly winds and much cooler conditions will prevail for Friday, but the cooler temperatures will also translate into higher humidity levels offsetting the fire danger, somewhat.

The weekend will see temperatures closer to the seasonal levels - a return to southerly winds by Sunday afternoon, lots of sunshine, and no mention of precipitation. Look for things to be warming up again going into early next week in advance of what now appears to be a stronger system which should be arriving late Tuesday or into the day Wednesday. That system will have the potential for bringing better chances of rain, but most of that will probably be Wednesday, which is just beyond the time frame of the 7-day QPF map which does show much for us.

However, looking further down the road at the 6-10-day outlooks and there is a stronger signal suggesting better chances of rain, which is badly needed. It also continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal over that time frame.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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