Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Fire Danger Still High, Cooler Temps On The Way

The fire danger won't be quite as high today compared to yesterday but will continue to be a concern this afternoon due to gusty south winds and dry vegetation across the area.   Humidity will be slightly higher this afternoon compared to yesterday.   Red Flag warning criteria is not likely to be met this afternoon across NE OK.   The pattern should bring a decent chance of showers and storms into the area by the end of the week.  Temperatures will slowly rise for both morning lows and afternoon highs in the short term.  

Before we get to the end of the week…this morning a very weak disturbance is noted in the satellite imagery moving across part of southwestern Kansas and northern OK.   I suppose an isolated shower or two could develop with this disturbance across far northern OK or southern Kansas.   The odds appear to be too low to include in the forecast panel this morning.   Now…to the end of the week.

A strong looking pacific trough is developing off the west coast today.   This system will dive across the southwestern U.S. and eject eastward while weakening Thursday.   A mid-length trough will develop across the northern plains and move eastward by the end of the week.   These two troughs will essentially phase to influence the southern and central plains with a good chance for showers and storms Friday.   Low level trajectory also supports an increase in low level and mid-level moisture before the system arrives.   This should result in the chance for some moderate rainfall rates Friday.   Another southern stream disturbance should also approach the area by the 2nd half of the weekend resulting in increasing storm chances Saturday into part of Sunday.     

Temperatures for the short term will remain cool in the morning and mild to warm in the afternoons.   Lows this morning in the mid to upper 50s will be followed by highs in the upper 70s near 82.   Gusty south winds from 10 to 25 mph will be likely along with mostly sunny conditions.   Again…a few of the models indicate a chance for scattered showers or storms to our north or northwest this morning.   This pop will remain away from our area.  

Wednesday and Thursday features lows in the upper 50s near 60 with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.   South winds will remain around 10 to 20 mph with mostly sunny conditions.  

Thursday night into Friday begins the chance for showers and storms, with Friday having the highest chances.   Thursday temperatures begin at 60 and end around 82.   Friday starts in the upper 50s near 60 with highs only in the upper 70s.   A modest cool down is expected this weekend.   Lows in the 50s will be followed by highs in the lower 70s Saturday and into the mid-60s for highs Sunday and Monday.   Monday starts in the upper 40s and ends in the upper 60s with another chance of showers and storms. 

The overall pattern appears to be transitioning to more of an active weather pattern compared to the previous month or so.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV