Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Increasing Chances For Rain
TULSA, Oklahoma - A few isolated showers will still be possible today across the western half of the state as forcing moves from the southwest to the northeast. But our main focus continues to be the increasing rain chances for Thursday night into Friday across the eastern third of the state. Cooler air will arrive for the weekend with some additional rain and storm chances for part of the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures this morning will move from the upper 50s and lower 60s into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
The main upper level trough located across southwestern U.S. this morning continues to slowly move eastward today. This is spreading showers and storms into the high plains of Texas and the panhandle region this morning. This trough will migrate eastward and basically phase with another medium length trough moving across the central plains. The result will be increasing rain and storm chances Thursday and Friday across the state. Low level trajectories will support increasing gulf moisture across Texas and Oklahoma as this system approaches the state. The result will be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall potential Thursday and Friday.
The weekend is slightly controversial in the data due to run to run inconsistencies in the data. I’ll skip the different scenarios for now and just give you my best shot. Showers and storms will be ongoing Saturday morning across part of eastern OK as the system slowly moves eastward. Sunday another disturbance will approach the central plains. A surface low should develop across part of central or far south TX and move east to slowly northeast. This will spread some rain chances back into at least southeastern OK Sunday and Monday. We’ll keep a slight chance of showers and storms in the forecast for this period, but the higher chances will reside slightly south of the metro. Please understand some changes are possible (and even likely) for the Sunday and Monday period regarding the pop forecast.
Temperatures will remain mild today with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s along with south winds at 10 mph, not nearly as breezy as yesterday. These readings are likely to be duplicated Wednesday and for most of Thursday across eastern OK. Friday the highs will drop into the lower to mid-70s with cloudy and wet conditions likely for the eastern half of the state, at least during the morning hours. A surface cold front will slide southward and bring a decent cool down this weekend with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s and highs in the mid to upper 60s. The rain chances will remain for part of the weekend with the higher chances across eastern and southeastern OK this weekend. There will remain a chance also for the northeastern third of the state.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!