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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rain Likely; Turning Cooler

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Still watching a widespread area of rain with embedded storms that will be moving our way over the next 24 hours, and should be arriving in Green Country along about dark - give or take a few hours on Thursday. The rain will then be widespread through the overnight hours and should be tapering off during the Friday morning time period as it gradually shifts on eastward.

The way things are looking at this time, only some spotty showers are expected to be lingering into the Friday evening time period, so perhaps the Friday night football games will be OK in that respect. Then, another round of showers will be possible for the morning hours of Saturday, ending later in the day, and a lesser chance to start the day Sunday.

All in all, this system looks to be the most prolific rain producer across the entire state that we have had in quite some time. In fact, the dryness over the course of the last 30 days now has NE OK in the record books for the second driest on record for those dates.

Here in Tulsa, the last time we had as much as even ¼” of rain was back on Oct 9 when 0.32” fell. Have to go all the way back to Sep 8 for the last time as much as an inch of rain was officially recorded out at the airport.

Notice the 30-day rainfall totals across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, and you can see how dry we have been over that time span. Notice also the consecutive days since the last time as much as ¼” of rain was recorded.

As mentioned, rain will be widespread with this coming event, but the amount of rain is still questionable. The main storm system is still located in the southern Rockies and moving slowly eastward. Various solutions have suggested as much as 1.5” through Friday to as little as ¼” for the same time frame.

As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, this particular product expects the rains to be generous, particularly for the more southern counties. Quite frankly, those areas are the most in need of rain but do not want to go from drought to flood either.

As you can see on our forecast page, the clouds and showers will also knock temperatures down, particularly over the weekend when our winds finally shift to a more N or NE direction during the day Saturday and through the day Sunday. A more easterly wind on Mon & Tue will also help keep temperatures in check compared to the very warm conditions so far this week.

We may have another chance of showers early in the week as well before a stronger cool front pushes across the state Wednesday of next week to bring much cooler conditions for at least a couple of days.

However, as you can see on the 8-14-day outlook, temperatures should quickly rebound. Keep in mind, though, that a normal daytime high by then is in the upper 60s, so highs in the 70s would still be considered above normal even though it will seem cool compared to where we have been lately.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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