Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Chance For Showers
TULSA, Oklahoma - A weak mid-level short wave moving across the central plains combined with a surface low across the southeastern U.S. is providing a few spotty showers this morning through midday across eastern OK and western Arkansas. The chance will remain relatively low for most locations. Temperatures this morning are not nearly as cold as yesterdays 30s and 40s. Readings currently in the lower and mid-50s will move into the upper 60s near 70 this afternoon along with mostly cloudy conditions for the first part of the day. Some sun-breaks will be possible later this afternoon but additional clouds will arrive tonight as a fast moving front nears the area. A few sprinkles or showers may occur Wednesday morning for a very small area of northeastern OK. Temperatures will remain cool for the rest of the week with morning lows in the 40s and 50s and daytime highs in the upper 60s near 70. A warming trend is likely next week.
The rest of the forecast will become focused on Friday and the weekend. A large trough across the western U.S. is expected to slowly move eastward by the end of the week. A lead disturbance is likely to eject around the base of the system Thursday and will approach eastern OK Friday morning to midday. Showers and storms will likely develop as southerly surface winds bring low level moisture back across the area. The atmosphere will support thunderstorms with some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall potential. The higher chance for the heaviest precipitation will occur across north central Texas into southeastern OK by midday to afternoon. A few strong storms may also be possible along the Red River Valley region of the state. The current data support the higher rain and storm chances holding off until late Friday afternoon and evening across the eastern third of the state.
Friday night into Saturday morning showers and storms will begin moving eastward and may continue to be experienced for the first few hours Saturday morning. This activity is expected to exit the area by afternoon and possibly early evening leaving Halloween damp but void of falling precipitation late Saturday afternoon and early evening. Another system will quickly follow late Saturday night and Sunday morning with additional showers and storms a possibility across part of eastern OK and western Arkansas. This system should exit the area by midday Sunday according to this morning’s data.
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