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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warm, Breezy Wednesday; Rain Likely Thursday

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As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, we are now past our normal first freeze date for Tulsa and, quite frankly, still do not see a freeze in our future anytime soon. That is not to say that we will not have some frost in the days ahead, but a freeze still does not appear likely through this forecast period.

In fact, above normal temperatures will be the general rule, at least through Thursday, followed by a cool-down going into the weekend. Speaking of above normal temperatures, notice the max/min temperature map for today.

Once again, our day today started with a low stratus deck and/or fog, depending on your location, which burned off as the day wore on - except for the far eastern counties. Clear skies early tonight will transition back to a low-level cloud deck after midnight and into the morning hours of Wednesday.

Fog will be little or no problem tonight, as our winds will not calm down with southerly breezes continuing at around 10 mph or so.

Gusty southerly winds will return during the day, which will help to mix out the low-level clouds by mid-morning, followed by abundant sunshine for the rest of the day. This combination will also result in a very warm day for this time of year, with morning lows well into the 50s and afternoon highs well into the 70s – i.e. around 10 degrees or so above normal.

Cloudy skies will prevail for Thursday in advance of our next cool front, which should be moving across the state that evening and overnight. The front should be reaching the Tulsa area after the midnight hour and our skies should be clearing by Friday morning followed by lots of sunshine for much of the day Friday and into the day Saturday.

This next boundary will also have a good chance of showers and perhaps some storms - even a low-end severe threat with potentially damaging winds or small hail. Showers may occur as soon as the early morning hours of Thursday, becoming more widespread later in the day with a chance of storms late in the day into the early nighttime hours until the front arrives.

Although most of us should get at least some rain out of this system, the 3-day QPF map suggests the heavier amounts will be well south and into Texas.

As you can see on our forecast page, we will be cooler through the coming weekend, but have brought in more clouds and also a slight chance of showers starting on Sunday and into early next week.

Some energy aloft will be responsible for these changes and will be in advance of the next stronger frontal boundary, which should be arriving later next week. That one will also have the potential for showers/storms followed by another cool-down. But, the overall trend, as we look further down the road at the 8-14-day outlooks, still suggests temperatures averaging above average along with occasional chances of rain.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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