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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Showers, Storms Likely Thursday; Cooler Weekend

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Took longer for the morning clouds to burn off today than expected which had an impact on temperatures. Still well above normal, though, with a morning low of 60 followed by a high of 71, which compares to the 67/44 for the max/min that is normal here in Tulsa at this time of year.

Notice the max/min temperature map across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, to see what it was like elsewhere.

Thursday morning will also get off to a very warm start, with morning temperatures mostly in the lower 60s under cloudy skies and with a brisk south wind. We will also have a chance of rain by first thing in the morning as a storm system approaches from the west.

The actual cool front will be moving across the state late in the day and through the overnight hours; it should be arriving around the midnight hour here in Tulsa, but most of the showers and any storms will have moved on eastward by then.

However, a potential dry line developing in the western counties will be mixing eastward during the day and could set off a round of heavier storms during the afternoon. Right now, it appears that conditions will be very marginal for storms for most of NE OK, but the more SE counties could see a greater threat, some of which would potentially be severe.

The widespread, mostly light, showers of the morning hours are expected to move on eastward by late morning or early afternoon and could allow the atmosphere to recover that afternoon. If we get some clearing behind those showers, that would allow temperatures to climb back into the 70s and, therefore, provide greater instability for the production of storms.

Also, relatively strong wind profiles aloft would support the potential for damaging winds to reach the surface. Again, that is a remote possibility for most of Green Country, but the more SE counties will be in a more favorable environment for some storms to possibly reach severe limits with primarily a wind/hail threat along with a minimal tornado threat.

So, look for widespread light rain and showers first thing in the morning followed by a chance of afternoon or early evening storms, most likely for the more SE counties. As for rainfall amounts, notice the 2-day QPF map which continues to keep the heaviest amounts well south, although most of us should pick up at least some rainfall.

After that, as you can see on our forecast page, a very quiet pattern will prevail through the weekend and into the following week. It will be cooler with frost a distinct possibility for Sat/Sun mornings, particularly for the normally cooler valley locations. Some locations in far NE OK could have a light freeze by Sunday morning, but we still do not see a widespread freeze anytime soon.

Those cool conditions will be followed by a nice rebound in temperatures going into early next week.

Our next chance of rain will be along about the middle of next week when another cool front will approach, followed by another cool-down. But, looking at the 8-14-day outlooks continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal for our neck of the woods along with continued chances of rain.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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