TULSA, Oklahoma - A strong cold front will move across the state today bringing rain and storms to portions of eastern OK and western Arkansas.   A few of the storms could be strong to severe.   Cooler and drier conditions will follow later tonight and remain through the weekend.   Temperatures Sunday morning will be near freezing across part of northeastern OK.    Highs today will range in the 70s. 

Our storm system is gaining speed this morning and will bring a cold front across the area later this afternoon and early evening.   This morning spotty showers and storms will develop ahead of the front as a lead disturbance ejects around the base of the broad western U.S. trough.   Surface instability is inadequate this morning for severe storms.   A few elevated storms develop but the odds support mainly spotty showers for the next few hours.   We’ll probably be dry around midday after some morning showers in a few spots.

The cold front will near the I-35 corridor region by 2pm and continue moving eastward into eastern OK by early evening.   A window for additional storm development will occur for the Tulsa metro and northeastern OK during this period.   Wind direction should be relatively uniform form the surface into the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere while surface instability will be lacking.   A few storms producing strong to severe wind gusts appears to be the main threat across the northeastern quadrant of the state.  Wind shear, instability, and convective parameters are slightly more favorable for severe storms across southeastern OK and north TX this afternoon.   The Tulsa metro window will be from 2pm to approximately 6pm with southeastern and east-central OK from 3pm to 8pm.  Storms will exit the state around 8pm to 9pm with the actual front a few hours later.

Cooler and drier air will move southward and allow Friday morning lows in the mid 40s.   Sunny conditions and north winds at 10 to 15 mph Friday afternoon will bring some fall-like conditions back to the region with highs in the lower to mid-60s.   A second surface front will move southward into northern OK Saturday morning with a few clouds and slightly cooler air.   The impact will be for Saturday afternoon highs remaining in the lower 60s along with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.   A surface ridge of high pressure will develop behind the departing system and allow clear sky and light wind to envelope the area Sunday morning.   Local dews will remain in the lower 30s and some freezing temperatures will be possible along the OK-Kansas state line region and into the typical colder valley locations of eastern OK.   We are not forecasting freezing temperatures for the Tulsa metro but it may be close with Sunday morning lows near 34.  The afternoon highs will stay near 60. 

The last few days model data has been hinting at another upper level system nearing the state.  Three days ago the data brought a system directly over the state with some showers Sunday into Monday, but the last few runs have taken the system northward and is much weaker than previous for the short term.   The data now is suggesting another system will dive across the central plains Wednesday while shoving another front southward.   South winds should develop Monday and remain through Wednesday with a slow increase in low level moisture.   As the next wave develops, some showers or thunder will be possible Wednesday or Thursday with cooler air following through the end of next week.   

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a great day!

Alan Crone