Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: High Winds, High Fire Danger, Chance Of Storms
If you thought it was a little breezy today, just wait, Wednesday looks to be howling with strong winds and perhaps even a few storms to cause even stronger localized wind gusts.
The first map shows the strongest winds as of late this afternoon, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, and wind gusts near 30 mph have been common. For Wednesday, look for sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40, particularly for the more northern and NW counties. In addition, the relative humidity will be dropping to near 30% or less during the afternoon hours, when the winds will be strongest, resulting in a high fire danger situation.
As for our chance of rain, any showers or storms will be primarily confined to the morning hours for most of us with, perhaps, some activity extending into the early afternoon for the far eastern counties. Given the timing and lack of instability, this does not look to be a significant severe weather maker for Green Country, but the strength of the winds at the surface and aloft suggests anything that can develop would have the potential for localized damaging winds.
The way things are shaping up at this time, gusty southerly winds will continue through the overnight hours bringing low-level moisture and cloudy skies for tonight and to start the day Wednesday. That will keep temperatures from dropping much and we should start the day in the 60s. There will also be at least some drizzle or light showers by the early morning hours, and perhaps a few storms as the morning wears on.
Again, any activity will quickly shift on eastward and should be out of the area by early afternoon.
Notice the 1-2 day QPF map which is not expecting much in the way of rainfall for Green Country with this system. That is because a dryline will be moving rapidly eastward across the state and shifting our winds to a more SW direction during the morning, then more from the W for the afternoon.
That veering wind pattern will bring in the much drier air and will also be accompanied by very strong winds due to rapid pressure changes and a tight pressure gradient. Also, our skies will be rapidly clearing from W-E as that drier air moves in with lots of afternoon sunshine and temperatures rising into the 70s.
The actual cold front will be arriving late in the day or that night shifting our winds to the NW and bringing in cooler air for Thursday.
After that, high pressure will settle in with a more stable, cooler, and less windy pattern for the rest of the week and to start the weekend as you can see on our forecast page. The only concern then will be the potential for frost again, particularly for the Friday and Saturday morning time frames.
By Sunday, another system will be approaching, bringing a chance of rain followed by what may be another unsettled period through the middle of next week.
Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlooks suggest a continued unsettled pattern going into the week leading up to Thanksgiving and also a temperature pattern which should average closer to normal.
All in all, we could be in for some interesting weather in the coming weeks so stay tuned and check back for updates.