Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Another System

<p>The first wave that brought some light drizzle and mix to part of the area is quickly moving away from the state this morning. &nbsp;</p>

Wednesday, January 20th 2016, 4:19 am



The first wave that brought some light drizzle and mix to part of the area is quickly moving away from the state this morning.   We’ll have a quiet and dry stretch of time for most of the day before the next system nears the region later tonight with increasing precipitation chances for part of Oklahoma.   This 2nd wave will have the chance of producing some rain that may change to snow across part of southern Kansas and part of northeastern OK.  

Some minor accumulations are possible along the OK-Kansas state line area into far northeastern OK.  A third wave will arrive midday Thursday and exit the area Thursday night late.   This wave could produce some light rain near Tulsa that may mix with or change to snow light snow late Thursday.   Far southeastern OK into southwestern Arkansas could be in a position for a quick burst of heavier snowfall late Thursday night, but the temperature-moisture profile still remains questionable in this region.

WARN Interactive Radar

By the time most folks read this post, the winter weather advisory currently underway for extreme eastern OK will no longer be in effect but you should use some caution driving on elevated surfaces in the far eastern third of the state early this morning with temperatures below near or slightly below freezing.   Highs later today will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with east winds around 10 mph by midday. 

The next upper level system is quickly nearing the area.   Precipitation will first develop later this afternoon across part of northwestern OK and expand rapidly northeast into south-central Kansas.   Part of this precipitation shield will brush far north-central and northern OK overnight into early Thursday morning.   I think this time will be around 10pm to approximately 5am.   Some light snow is possible in this area with moderate snowfall likely across south-central Kansas.   Some relatively minor accumulations are possible later tonight into early Thursday along the state line. 

As the system gains strength later today, a surface low is expected to develop along the Red River Valley southward into central Texas while moving eastward later Thursday afternoon.   Northeast winds will wrap around the surface low and move across northeastern OK by midday to afternoon with temperatures in the 30s.   Some rain will be possible across part of northeastern OK and more likely across far southeastern OK Thursday midday to afternoon.   Some rain near the metro may change over into light snow later Thursday evening before the system exits the region Thursday night.    There should be a swath of “heavier snowfall” Thursday night.  The exact location of this possible zone is difficult to pinpoint, but the early morning data suggest this could be across far southeastern OK into southwestern Arkansas and dropping into far northeast TX.   But the temperature and moisture profile in this region may still not be totally conducive to the snow formation.  The entire system will leave the state Thursday late and the precipitation will end from the west to east.   Cold air will remain with Friday morning temperatures in the 20s and highs in the mid to upper 30s. 

The weekend will feature a return to southerly surface winds, some sunshine, and improving conditions.   The temperature forecast has been changed slightly for Saturday to decrease the highs a few degrees from previous numbers.   This means our highs should top out in upper 40s across most of eastern OK with some lower 50s along the Red River Valley and some lower 40s across extreme northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.   The Sunday forecast remains basically unchanged with lows in the mid-30s and highs in the mid to upper 50s.   Another cold front should move across the area late Sunday night or Monday bringing the highs back down into the upper 30s and lower 40s.   A strong looking system may near the area by the middle of next week but there remain several inconsistencies in the data.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

logo

Get The Daily Update!

Be among the first to get breaking news, weather, and general news updates from News on 6 delivered right to your inbox!

More Like This

January 20th, 2016

March 14th, 2024

December 4th, 2023

September 25th, 2023

Top Headlines

March 28th, 2024

March 28th, 2024

March 28th, 2024

March 28th, 2024