Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm-Up Continues

Yesterday afternoon was gorgeous.   Today should be even better with slightly warmer daytime highs as many locations will move into the lower 60s.   Our morning readings are still chilly but not as cold as yesterday’s teens and lower 20s.   This noticeable warm-up will remain for the next few days.    A strong storm system will arrive late in the weekend with thunderstorm chances early next week followed by a big cool down.   

The short-term looks good.   Sunshine and pleasant weather will remain.   We’ll be above the seasonal average today and through the weekend.   Friday into Saturday strong south winds will develop in response to a lead disturbance moving in our direction.    Morning lows will move into the upper 30s and lower 40s with Friday’s and Saturday highs in the upper 60s.   A few spots may possibly be into the lower 70s.   The fires danger will become elevated during this period due to dry vegetation, low afternoon humidity, and the strong winds.   The winds will be an issue, but the bigger forecasting headache starts Sunday into early next week.

The issue in the forecast centers upon Sunday and beyond as a strong storm system will impact the state and region sometime early next week.   Rain and thunderstorm chances Monday night will be followed by much colder air and some chance of snowfall across the state.    At this point, the data would suggest the better shot of accumulating snow Tuesday would remain across northwestern OK into south-central Kansas but some light snow showers would be possible across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  

The data has not been consistent with a Sunday system and cold front and this leads to some potential errors for the Sunday temperature forecast across Oklahoma.   I’ll spare all the details but the GFS is bringing the front more south Sunday with colder air spilling into much of Oklahoma during the morning hours.   The EURO data brings the front into the state but stalls the boundary near or slightly north of the I-40 region.   This would keep southern OK into the mid-60s with northeastern sections in the mid-50s.   A few showers or sprinkles may be possible Sunday with the frontal intrusion but this pop will remain very low.  

Sunday night into Monday the powerful upper level system will be nearing the state.   A surface area of low pressure will quickly develop somewhere across the southern plains as this occurs.   Winds will back from the southeast and increase speeds quickly Sunday night into Monday morning with 20 to 30 mph winds likely into Monday afternoon and evening.   As the storm system moves across the state, a cold front will sweep eastward providing a chance of showers and storms to develop.   The early parameters would suggest some severe weather potential with the system across southeastern OK, more so with the slightly slower GFS data, before the colder air would move across the area with Tuesday into early next week.    As this system moves eastward across the nation significant weather would follow. 

For now, let’s enjoy this super great stretch of pleasant late January weather.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super nice day!

Alan Crone