Alan Crone Weather Blog: Warming Trend & Very Windy Thursday

The pattern remains intact for the next few days with spring-like afternoon highs and gusty winds.   The fire danger will remain elevated today but will become critically high Thursday as a strong surface area of low pressure develops to our northwest.   South to southwest winds at 30 to 45 mph will be likely Thursday along with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  

Fire Weather Watch 

A weak front will move near or slightly south of the metro Friday, but a stronger front will arrive Sunday morning bringing a chance for showers and storms back to portions of eastern and southern OK.   The best chances will remain south of the metro Sunday.  Cooler air will follow for a few days early next week.

The temperatures this morning are cool with many locations reporting the 30s.   Winds are currently calm, but will increase speeds later today from the south at 10 to 25 mph.   A few clouds will be likely on occasion but mostly sunny conditions are expected for most of the area with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. 

A strong looking upper level system will develop out of the Pacific Northwest soon and move eastward across the nation.   The upper air flow, currently from the northwest, will quickly become zonal (west to east) allowing this strong disturbance to move almost due east out of the intermountain region into the central and northern high plains Friday and Saturday.   A strong low pressure center will develop in the Lee of the Rockies ejecting into the northern high plains allowing our winds from the south to increase speeds Thursday and Thursday night.  

Some model data output suggests winds near 50 mph will be possible northwest of the metro late Thursday afternoon and evening.   Model RH is currently above the threshold for Red Flag Warning criteria but this data may be too high regarding initial dew point production for the afternoon.   If RH does drop by Thursday afternoon, Red Flag Warnings will be hoisted.  At this point, actual Red Flag Warning criteria are not being met in the actual model output.  Another issue is our temperature forecast.   We’re well above the model output for Thursday with highs in the 80 to 84 degree range.   The key will be the moisture return and possible mixing Thursday afternoon.   We may end up punting on 3rd down by lowering the high a few degrees, but the trend of very windy and warm conditions will remain Thursday with extreme fire danger possibilities.

The weekend will feature a chance for some showers or storms Sunday but this morning’s data is not very bullish for northern OK. 

This first disturbance will move quickly across the Midwest Saturday, but another disturbance will quickly eject out of the west Sunday helping to shove a front southward.   Low level moisture may be deep enough for a few showers or storms Sunday morning to midday, but the better chances will remain south of the metro.   This front will move into north TX Monday with a few days next week supporting highs in the 50s.   The pattern will transition again to a northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

  KOTV