Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Records Likely Again Friday, Cool Temps On The Way

What a day – temperatures near record levels, strong southerly winds, mostly sunny skies, abundant dry vegetation – all a recipe for wildfires to get out of control and there have been plenty of those so far today.  Notice the max wind map which had some gusts to 50 mph or more.  The only redeeming grace is the fact that the winds did not go to a more W component which would have raised the temperature even more and also dropped the humidity levels further.  The max/min temperature map for today even has some 90s in NW OK where they had a stronger SW wind.  For Tulsa, looks like we have tied the record with a high of 78.

Records will likely fall to start the day Friday though as gusty southerly winds will continue through the overnight hours and temperatures just will not drop off much.  Look for morning lows in the 50s to near 60 which will be a record warm start.  Also, southerly winds will continue at 15-25 mph through the night although beginning to subside more as we get into the morning hours of Friday.

A weak wind shift will make a move at us during the day with the winds shifting to a more northerly direction around the noon hour, then the boundary washing out leaving very light winds for the afternoon into the evening.  Bottom line is that the winds will be much weaker through the day with winds on the order of 10-15 with only a few higher gusts.  We will also have mostly cloudy skies and higher humidity levels which will help mitigate the fire danger at least somewhat.  After the very warm start, daytime highs will once again approach record levels but the clouds should keep us in the upper 70s for the most part.

Mostly cloudy skies and even higher humidity levels are expected for Saturday along with relatively light southerly winds on the order of 10-15 or so.  There may even be a few sprinkles before the day is over, but no measurable rainfall is anticipated.  Morning lows in the 50s and highs once again in the 70s so still very spring-like with regard to temperatures.  A stronger cool front will arrive Saturday night with brisk northerly winds for Sunday.  However, temperatures are still expected to be above normal and there is only a slight chance of showers/thunder and that primarily for the more E or SE counties.

After that, as you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will be more seasonal going into next week, but there are still no signs of any big rain makers.  We have put in another chance of showers for Tuesday as the pattern aloft will support another disturbance moving overhead. But, it looks to be moisture starved so unless something changes will only go with a slight chance with that system.

After that, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures averaging warmer than normal and still a relatively quiet weather pattern. 

However, we continue to monitor some longer term climate drivers that still suggest we are not through with winter just yet.

Dick Faurot