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Rain Chances Return Late in the Day Friday and Overnight.

Posted: Updated:
today today
4 day 4 day
drought drought
qpf qpf
8-14 8-14

The big storm system in Mexico mentioned in yesterday’s blog is finally starting to eject and as it does so will bring another round or two of showers for much of the state over the course of the next few days.  Rainfall today has been confined to the far SE counties as you can see on the rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

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Compare that to the totals for the last 4 days and it is obvious the E half of the state has had a good soaking, but the folks out west have largely missed out.  That has been the case all year and is starting to cause some problems as you can see on the latest version of the drought monitor which was released today.   Drought is beginning to rear its ugly head once again for the more western counties of the state and the prospects for any relief are not very promising.

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Notice the 3 day QPF map which has shifted the axis of heavier rains further east due to the projected movement of the storm system coming out of Mexico.  That also suggests the far western counties which need rain the most stand to receive the least; if they get any rain at all out of this system. 

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Keep in mind, there continues to be considerable uncertainty regarding the exact track/timing/intensity of that system as it ejects from Mexico due to its very unusual location for this time of year.  At any rate, current projections suggest rain will start spreading back northward from TX into OK during the morning hours of Friday and then on into the more northern counties by late afternoon and evening.  Thus, as you look at the forecast page, keep in mind that high chance of rain primarily applies to the latter part of the day extending through the overnight hours.

Some lingering showers off and on will extend through the day Saturday and another system will be passing overhead on Sunday with another chance of showers and perhaps even some thunder.  By Monday, all chances of rain will have ended which is why the 3 day QPF map is shown.  Also, by Monday we expect to start seeing more sunshine and therefore warmer temperatures.

For tonight and Friday, cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will be the general rule which together with a NE wind should produce temperatures ranging from the 40s for the more northern counties to the mid 50s further south.  That will be due to the much drier air currently in place over the more northern counties.  Cloudy skies and a NE wind together with the return of showers will keep most locations in the 60s for Friday and some of the more southern counties may remain in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday should be a little warmer due to a more southerly wind flow, but there will still be very little sunshine and still a chance of additional showers.  That will be followed by more sunshine, southerly breezes and very Spring-like conditions for Mon-Tue.  Another frontal boundary will arrive late Tuesday shifting our winds back to northerly but with only minimal chances of showers into the day Wednesday.  However, it will bring temperatures back to the real world with more seasonal conditions expected for the rest of the week and into that following weekend as you can see on our forecast page.

As for our prospects of some decent rainfall after that, particularly for the folks that need it the most; well, the 8-14 day outlook is not very optimistic as it suggests a more stable weather pattern and little or no rain over that time frame.  Of course, that is subject to change, but that is the way things stand now.

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At any rate, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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