Alan Crone's Weather Blog: More Rain Soon - NewsOn6.com - Tulsa, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports - KOTV.com |

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: More Rain Soon

Posted: Updated:
Alan Crone Alan Crone
TULSA, Oklahoma -

A couple of random highlights.   Most of spring-break looks good.    The main low over Mexico will start moving northward this morning.   The up-stream kicker, still way out in the pacific, will be enter the coast later tonight or early Saturday.   The rain makes a comeback today, more so tonight.   And the air aloft will become colder as the trough approaches.   This means thunder will be back into the mix for the next two days.   The severe weather threat appears very low this weekend but not exactly zero from a shear perspective for extreme eastern OK Sunday afternoon.   Now…let’s start from the beginning.

WARN Interactive Radar

Weather Alerts

Rain with embedded thunder will start migrating northward into north-central Texas early this morning with some showers expanding into southern OK.   This activity will slowly move north and possibly northwest by later today.   Odds will support most of northeastern OK remaining dry for most of the morning to midday while southeastern sections may see some showers.  But…of course…there’s already a small area of showers west of the metro as I post this morning.   This appears to be around the deformation zone.  

About early afternoon the precipitation shield will extend closer into the metro with the highest chances from approximately 4pm through the evening.   Some thunder may be possible but no severe weather will occur.   Saturday morning some scattered showers or storms will be possible for a few hours but should move east or northeast of the region by midday.  Later Saturday evening a few additional showers or storms will be possible across eastern OK.   So Saturday has an early morning pop and a late evening chance.    But we’re still not finished with the precipitation chances.

The above mentioned upstream kicker will be rapidly nearing Oklahoma Sunday morning.   This feature, at least in the model data, will be a fairly strong and compact upper level low.   As it approaches western OK a surface area of low pressure will quickly develop and move generally eastward into eastern OK by Sunday afternoon.   Data this morning keeps a 1004 low around Durant to Bonham by midday Sunday.  Scattered storms will be possible ahead of this feature, beginning Sunday midday to afternoon.   The actual chance will remain around 30% for the Sunday system.   The wind shear profiles Sunday (turning of wind with height-increasing speeds with height) would support thunderstorm activity but the instability factor is expected to remain low.   The potential convective energy may be higher across far southeastern OK and northeastern TX by Sunday afternoon.    At this point, I would think any severe threats would remain to the southeast of the immediate area.   We’ll need to watch the data closely this weekend for any increase in low level moisture ahead of the kicker.  

Monday into Tuesday the forecast will be focused on a nice temperature warm-up with lows in the 50s and highs near 82 Monday.   Tuesday another fast moving upper level wave will near the state and but the chance for a few showers or storms will remain near or east of the area.   Tuesday surface winds may be from the at 20 to 30 mph.   The fire danger will be enhanced during this period.   

The data does go separate ways for the end of next week.   I’ll resist the urge to dwell too much, but the GFS features a significant cold snap by late next week while the EURO is not as chilly.   Both sets bring rain-or storms back into the area late Thursday night into Friday.   We’ll cross that bridge sometime early next week.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

  • Travis Meyer's BlogMore>>

  • What A Storm!

    What A Storm!

    Well that was one wild 10 day runs with Oklahoma weather! Record snow of 27" @ Spavinaw and a record state low of -31 in Nowata.More >>
    Well that was one wild 10 day runs with Oklahoma weather! Record snow of 27" @ Spavinaw and a record state low of -31 in Nowata.More >>
  • SHORT COLD BLAST THIS TIME

    SHORT COLD BLAST THIS TIME

    Our strong, but little, storm system that brought cold rain, wind and falling temperatures to Green Country is moving out.More >>
    Our strong, but little, storm system that brought cold rain, wind and falling temperatures to Green Country is moving out.More >>

Special Features

Bus Stop Forecast

Wondering if you’ll need rain gear for you morning bus trip or afternoon ride home? Ask Alan!

Weather 101

Learn more about weather events that affect Oklahomans

Radars

See where weather is happening using our live interactive radars.

Live Traffic

Get the latest road conditions on Green Country roadways.

CBS Shows

Watch your favorite CBS shows for free online.

Live Radar

WARN Interactive

Featured on NewsOn6.com

  • Radars

    See where weather is happening using our live interactive radars.

  • Osage SkyNews 6

    When there is breaking news across the state Osage SkyNews 6 can be first on the scene.

  • Storm Zone

    Watch tornadoes tear across Oklahoma and learn how to stay safe!

Powered by Frankly
News On 6
303 N. Boston Ave.
Tulsa, OK 74103
Newson6.com is proud to provide Oklahomans with timely and relevant news and information, sharing the stories, pictures and loves of Oklahomans across our great state.
All content © Copyright 2000 - 2018 KOTV. Oklahoma Traveler™ is a registered trademark of Griffin Communications. All Rights Reserved.
For more information on this site, please read our Privacy Policy, and Terms of Service, and Ad Choices.