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Thursday Morning Update

Alan Crone Weather Blog: Cooler Today And A Weekend System Nearing

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Alan Crone Alan Crone

The cold front and dry line moved across the area last night with a round of thunderstorms across southeastern and east-central OK. Some large hail was reported with some of the storms.

This morning we’re on the back side of the system with northwest winds and cooler air filtering down into the state.   The winds will remain gusty this morning but not nearly as strong as yesterday’s winds. The wind speeds will remain in the 20 to 25 mph range for the first half of the day before the pressure gradient begins to relax later this afternoon as a surface ridge of high pressure moves near the area.  

Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s this morning and will end with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon along with mostly sunny conditions.  The fire danger will remain elevated this afternoon but no red flag warnings are likely to remain for the area.

A special note for the early morning hours: the winds have brought smoke from northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas into the region early this morning. This haze may linger for a while.

The next few days appear pleasant with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons.   Friday morning temperatures in the lower to mid-30s may offer some valley locations another light freeze before daytime highs move back into the mid 6os near 70 along with sunshine and south winds.

A system will be nearing by Saturday morning with a few showers a possibility across far northern OK. Saturday morning lows in the 40s will be followed by highs in the lower 70s along with south winds and partly cloudy conditions.   But the higher chances for showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, will arrive late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  

EURO data is more northward this morning with a surface low across the state while the GFS has the low more south.    And EURO brings colder air into the state by midday to afternoon while the GFS is not nearly as chilly.   At this point, we’re sticking with a compromise.   This will mean north winds developing by Saturday evening into Sunday morning along with a chance for some scattered showers or embedded thunderstorms Easter Sunday morning.  

Sunday morning lows in the lower 40s will be followed by afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s with most of the precipitation moving out of the area by midday to early afternoon.   

The pattern should bring another robust storm system into the area by the middle of next week with additional thunderstorm chances by Wednesday or Thursday.   This pattern would support the potential for strong to severe storms, but once again, the differences in the data at this point lead to a low confidence for days 7 and 8 of the forecast.

In the long term, the pattern may bring some colder air back into the region for the early part of April.   It’s a little difficult to say for sure at this point, but some index products is lending credence to a cool down for a large chunk of the nation from late March into the first week or so of April.  Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV

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