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Possible Severe Storms For Wednesday

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Could be interesting for our Wednesday as a developing storm system will be moving out of the southern Rockies and across the Plains pushing a dry line followed by a cold front across the state.  This is a severe weather set-up, but as usual the devil will be in the details.  As you can see on the graphic, the threat of severe storms will be widespread and actually covers an area from Nebraska/Iowa down to the Gulf of Mexico. 

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One issue will be when/where storms fire up late tonight and into the morning hours as those storms will have an impact on the subsequent development that is expected by afternoon or evening.  Latest/greatest data currently suggests storms forming over far SE OK and adjacent TX by early morning and those shifting on eastward during the day.  Question is how strong they will be and how quickly they will move out.  The severe threat down there will be largely due to wind/hail but if this should develop into a very large system and is slower to move out than anticipated, then the atmosphere further north will be impacted by the thicker clouds and outflow limiting our severe weather threat here in NE OK.

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The most likely outcome is that those storms will move out quickly enough for the atmosphere here in NE OK to destabilize as the dry line approaches from the west late in the day as shown on the graphic.  That means after some early morning cloud cover and some morning showers here in NE OK, we should see some breaks in the clouds by afternoon and which would result in enough daytime heating for storms to form along/ahead of the dry line and move our way that evening/night.  Those storms would be severe with all modes possible.  Strongly advise keeping a close eye on this very dynamic situation as conditions could rapidly change over the next 24 hours or so.

After that, we have basically a dry forecast as you can see on our forecast page.  By the way, notice the 7 day QPF map which once again has the heavier rainfall well to our east where the deeper moisture will be available.  Also, what rain we receive will be confined to the next 24 hours as it looks to be dry after that.

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As for temperatures, cloudy skies and brisk SE winds will keep us very warm tonight with morning lows in the 60s.  The cloud cover or lack thereof by afternoon will be a big player in daytime highs with most of us well into the 70s but if we do get some clearing then some low 80s may occur resulting in a more unstable environment. 

The cool front will arrive Wednesday night followed by brisk NW winds which will bring cooler air back over the state Thursday with a re-enforcing surge of even cooler air arriving Friday.  The drier, cooler air brought in by those winds will result in much cooler nights and we may even have some frost by Saturday morning.  Lots of sunshine each day though will also result in mild daytime temperatures going into the weekend.

Southerly winds returning by Sunday into early next week will warm things back up.  Another cool front looks to arrive by Tuesday but this will just be a glancing blow and also looks to be a dry system.  That will be followed by another warm up and in fact, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures running above normal for our part of the world.  That pattern also suggests relatively quiet weather during that time frame, but it will be early April and things can change in a hurry. 

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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