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Cooler Tue/Wed, Active Weekend Pattern.

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The storms of last night into the morning hours produced some gusty winds and hail, but more importantly they also brought some good rainfall.  Notice the rains over the last 24 hours which were very generous for some locations, not so much for others; but most of the state picked up at least some rainfall.  Unfortunately, the exception was where it is needed the most; NW OK where almost 60,000 acres have burned and a fire in Woodward county is still only 80% contained at last report.

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Another system will bring a chance of showers for the more southern counties on Wednesday, but that will be a very weak system and any rain with it will be on the light side.  However, the longer range guidance has been consistently suggesting a much stronger system will be impacting the state this coming weekend.  As might be expected at this time frame, there are some timing and intensity issues, but all current indications suggest this will be a very wet system and will bring lots of moisture to those areas that need it the most.  Notice the 7 day QPF map for example which suggests that some locations may go from drought to flood before this system finally moves out early next week.

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In the meantime, much cooler air has moved in behind the cold front that arrived this morning and brisk NE winds for tonight through the day Tuesday will keep temperatures below normal for a change. 

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We will also have at least a slight chance for a few lingering showers tonight before that system completely exits the state.  That will be followed by more sunshine during the day Tuesday but with a brisk NE wind look for daytime temperatures to hold in the 60s after starting off the day in the 40s.  In fact, some of the more northern counties may even have some upper 30s by early morning.

As you can see on our forecast page, Wednesday will have lighter SE winds, but will also have mostly cloudy skies and as mentioned a chance of a few light showers mainly for the far southern counties.  At any rate, the clouds will keep temperatures below normal again during the day with highs once again in the 60s.  By the way, the normal max/min temperature for Tulsa at this time of year is 71/48. 

Thursday and Friday will have stronger SE winds and plenty of sunshine which will bring above normal temperatures back over the state.  We will also be dry as the strong system developing out west is expected to be a rather slow mover and its main impacts will be over the course of the weekend.

Gusty SE winds will continue through the weekend bringing abundant low level moisture back into the state and at the same time a strong, slow moving system aloft will be moving into the southern Rockies.  As mentioned, there are still some details to be worked out but that combination will produce widespread showers/storms starting out west on Saturday and moving our way Sunday.  The slow movement also suggests some lingering showers/storms will be possible into the first of next week.

In fact, the 6-10 day outlook keeps us with an active pattern through that time frame along with near to above normal temperatures.  Of course, at this time of year the potential for storms will also include the potential for severe weather although this particular situation looks more like a flooding event from our current perspective.

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In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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