Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Great Friday Weather

Good morning. Cool temperatures are underway across Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. Many locations are now in the upper 40s and lower 50s and we'll move to near 80 this afternoon. Pleasant weather is likely today and for most of the weekend before our storm chances will return to the state. Next week's weather pattern appears to support several chances for strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity across part of our area. A significant storm system will be a possibility Tuesday night into Wednesday.   But a few other chances will be in the forecast before and after the Tuesday system.

The first system will be approaching our area Sunday.   South Winds will develop tomorrow and continue into Sunday. These winds will transport rich low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the state setting the stage for potential thunderstorm activity.   The first wave will pass north of our area Saturday night into Sunday with the main energy focused across part of Nebraska and the Dakotas.   But a small piece of energy will brush Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma Sunday with a weak front sliding southward into Northern Oklahoma by Monday morning.   This may be enough to trigger a few showers or thunderstorms from Northwestern or Northern Oklahoma into Southern Kansas Sunday night into early Monday morning.   A few of these storms could be strong to severe with a higher likelihood for severe storms across South Central Kansas. The cold front may stall near the Oklahoma state line and move northward Monday night into Tuesday as a powerful upper-level storm system organizes Over the Rockies.    This system will allow a surface area of low pressure to develop across part of Oklahoma Tuesday with a dry line establishing across the western side of the state. As this dry line and surface area of low pressure moves eastward Tuesday evening, thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of these features.   

Early projections from some model data indicate severe weather parameters will be increasing during this time and would support all modes of severe weather activity.   This initial front would pass the Tulsa area Wednesday morning with additional thunderstorm activity possibly Wednesday afternoon or evening across far Southeastern Oklahoma. This would bring cooler and somewhat stable air across Northern Oklahoma Wednesday midday to early afternoon but this air mass will not linger long. Yet another upper level storm system will develop across Southern California near the Baja and move Eastward by Friday and Saturday. This will cause the front to move back North as a warm front sometime by the late Friday or Saturday with additional strong to severe thunderstorms a possibility during late next week into Saturday.   Obviously we are several days away from the middle portion of next week, but the expected pattern combined with the favorable climatological time of year would support increasing severe weather potential. 

Our weather today will be of the 5-star varieties with sunshine, light winds, and highs near 80. Saturday morning temperatures will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s followed by daytime highs in the low 80s.   Sunshine and south winds will prevail Saturday with increasing wind speeds by mid-day to afternoon. Sunday morning starts with a low near 60 and increasing clouds by midday to early afternoon. High temperature Sunday afternoon could exceed the lower 80s and there will be a chance for a few storms Sunday night into Monday morning across the far Northern sections of our area. We will include the Tulsa Metro with this probability. Temperatures next week will be characterized by morning lows in the 60s and daytime highs in the low 80s Monday through Wednesday.    Temperature Thursday should be slightly cooler with morning lows in the lower 50s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone