Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Severe Storm Chances Again

Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast this morning through the evening hours across part of the state, including the Tulsa metro.   Some storms may be severe.   This system will exit northeastern OK early Saturday morning.   A few storms may still develop Saturday afternoon across far eastern OK and western Arkansas.   Temperatures will be in the lower 70s today along with mostly cloudy and breezy conditions.   A minor yet noticeable cool down should occur for a few days next week. 

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Our next major upper level system is located to our west and northwest this morning and will continue to impact the southern plains with thunderstorm chances for the next 24 to 48 hours.   The cold front that crossed the area Wednesday is now lifting northward this morning as a warm front and is located across the far southern section of the state.   Locations along and south of the boundary will be supportive of severe storms including the small possibility of a tornado or two, even this morning through midday.   Locations north of the warm front, including most locations across northeastern OK, may see thunderstorms that could produce some hail and gusty winds.   This first batch of thunderstorm activity is moving across southcentral OK into northwestern Arkansas this morning and should either dissipate or exit the area by midday.   

Later this afternoon additional storm chances will occur as a dry-line type feature will form across the central part of the state along with a surface area of low pressure lifting across southwestern into central OK by afternoon.   This may allow the warm front to surge northward or even reform to our north by this afternoon.   This would bring a very unstable air-mass into the northeastern portions of the state by 3pm to 6pm.   Individual storms would attempt to develop and could produce all hazards of severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes.   If the warm front does move northward or reforms to our north the threat for severe storms will increase this afternoon and tonight near the boundary.  Please remain aware of your weather surroundings today and tonight.   

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Saturday morning the surface area of low pressure will be exiting northeastern OK by 7am.   Relatively dry air will move across western and central OK.   This dry-slot should keep the storms away from the area after the Saturday pre-dawn areas.   A pacific cold front will move across the state Saturday afternoon and a few additional showers or storms may be possible across extreme eastern OK or western Arkansas.   The chance for Saturday, both early morning and late day, will remain at 20%.     Daytime highs Saturday will move into the mid or upper 70s with cooler air arriving Sunday with highs in the lower 70s.

Monday into Tuesday afternoon highs will stay in the mid to upper 60s with a weak storm system bringing some showers or light rain near northern OK Monday night into Tuesday morning.   The north winds and relatively cool air will keep our atmosphere stable.  No severe weather would be expected with this early week system.   We should remain cool and relatively calm until late next week when another seasonably strong spring storm system will impact the southern plains. 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings today and tonight.

Alan Crone