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Increased Chances For Showers/Storms

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The few showers that occurred today did not provide much in the way of rainfall and the cloudy morning skies gave way to sunshine in time for temperatures to again soar well into the 90s.  Heat index values were well into triple digits once again but fortunately, the dew point had dropped a few degrees so those heat index values were not quite as extreme as was the case yesterday.  Here in Tulsa, the heat index topped out at 107 compared to 112 yesterday although the afternoon high was 97 both days.  The difference was in the dew point which was at a miserable 77 during the hottest part of the day yesterday and 74 today.

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As you can see on the actual max/min temperatures, we did not cool off much overnight and that will be the case again tonight. A southerly breeze of 10-15 mph or so will continue through the overnight hours which will keep temperatures very warm with the urban areas only dropping into the lower 80s and the rural locations the upper 70s.  After such a warm start, that means Friday will be another hot and humid day, but temperatures should be at least a few degrees below recent days.

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The reason for that is a better chance of showers/storms, particularly late in the day extending into the overnight hours.  Depending on how quickly the clouds form and the showers develop will make a huge difference in our daytime high.  If it is late enough in the day, we will once again be in the upper 90s, but am currently thinking we will have enough cloud cover to keep us in the low-mid 90s before the showers/storms get going and bring us some rain cooled air.

For that matter, cannot rule out a few left-over showers/storms reaching our area by early Friday morning as once again storms are currently forming over the high plains and will be moving this general direction before falling apart.  As you can see on our forecast page, we will also have a decent chance of showers/storms reforming later Saturday and perhaps extending into the day Sunday.  Since our best chances for rain will be over the next 3 days, then have included the 3 day QPF map.  Keep in mind, this is an areal average for precipitation and does not necessarily mean everyone will receive that much.  But, it does show there is at least the potential for several inches of rain and some locations could easily receive far more than that.   

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However, going into next week, the rain chances drop off once again so temperatures will be rising during the day along with heat index values likely at or above triple digits for much of next week.  By the way, have also included a soil temperature map as thought some out there might like to see how our soils have responded to the much warmer than normal temperatures we experienced all during June and so far for July.

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Looking further down the road, the long range guidance continues to suggest above normal temperatures along with only scattered showers/storms for the 8-14 day time frame.  That means little relief from the heat and humidity.  That would suggest our soils will start to dry out which will eventually result in some triple digit air temperatures.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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