Fine Fall Weather.

Today’s north winds have brought in re-enforcements in the form of more dry, mild air moving back into the state.  Notice the dew point temperature map as of late this afternoon for example and the drier air over the NE counties is very obvious.  That drier air will continue to spread over the state and will remain in place going into the weekend.  Together with clear skies and diminishing winds, that also means relatively cool nights with temperatures dropping into the 40s tonight and again Thursday night. 

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However, that dry air in place also means abundant sunshine so our daytime temperatures will be warming rather quickly although staying just below normal for this time of year.  By the way, the normal max/min is 78/56 for Thu/Fri so we will be about 10 degrees below normal to start each day but closer normal for the afternoon hours both days.

Also, northerly winds will prevail both days but becoming more easterly on Saturday and back to a more SE direction by Sunday.  That will start a warming trend which is expected to continue through the middle of the coming week as you can see on our forecast page.  A more southerly wind for the first part of the week will also bring at least some moisture back our way so a few more clouds will start to show up by Monday or Tuesday and a chance of showers or storms along about Wednesday.  Right now, the longer range guidance is still not handling the system coming our way by mid-week very well so will keep the rain chances rather low until we see better consistency.

At any rate, the 7 day QPF map does suggest the potential for some locations to get some decent rainfall.  But, keep in mind that any precipitation shown here would be confined to Wednesday as far as our weather is concerned.  Also, keep in mind that this is an areal average and that it does not suggest everyone will receive that much.  In fact, I expect those amounts to vary considerably with subsequent model solutions in the days ahead.

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Bottom line is that we will certainly enjoy some fine fall weather right on through the coming weekend followed by a warming trend next week.  Also, this is a quiet weather pattern until perhaps the middle of next week.  Reason for this quiet weather is the upper level wind pattern which has a strong storm system NE of us as you can see on the 500 mb map as of this afternoon.  By Sunday afternoon, that system will be only slowly weakening and drifting to the NE.  Since we are on the backside of the system, it is essentially blocking any additional storm systems from coming our way until it finally moves out.  That process will be taking place next week, but the next system moving onto the W Coast is also not being handled consistently by the longer range guidance at this time; thus the uncertainty regarding our rain chances or weather changes by mid-week.

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Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlook is also suggesting above normal temperatures for later next week and through that following weekend.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs back into the 80s and overnight lows well into the 50s or 60s.   Also, the 8-14 day outlook is now closer to normal with respect to our chances of additional moisture.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot