Records Possible Later in the Week.

A weak cool front moved through the state during the day today shifting our winds to northerly but it did not amount to much more than a wind shift as temperatures were still well above normal.  So far, the max/min for today has been 71/47 as compared to the normal values of 62/40.  Light winds and fair skies for the overnight hours will result in another quick cool-down this evening, but temperatures will still be well above normal for Tuesday.  Look for overnight lows to be in the mid 40s to start the day and afternoon highs to reach the mid 70s to end the day.  Our winds will return to a light southerly direction for Tuesday but becoming strong and gusty for the Wed/Thu time frame.

That will create some fire danger issues as we are very dry and the recent frost/freeze for many locations and the time of year has much of the vegetation going dormant anyway.  At any rate, those southerly winds will be picking up to the 10-20 mph range Wednesday afternoon and likely gusting over 30 mph at times on Thursday.

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That also means we will be even warmer on those days and could approach record levels both at night as well as during the day.  Wednesday will see morning lows near 50 and daytime highs near 80 under mostly sunny skies.  Those values will be short of record levels but Thursday will start off near 60 and depending on cloud cover during the day should top out near 80.  Both of those values will be in record territory for Thursday.

The reason for the strong southerly winds over the next few days is a strong storm system that will be moving through the southern Rockies and out into the Plains and eventually pushing a strong cold front through the state early Friday.  However, despite the strength of the system and the gusty southerly winds, moisture looks to be very limited and most of what rain falls will likely be over far E/SE OK and on into Arkansas.  As you can see on our forecast page, the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is not that great and the 7 day QPF also suggests the heavier amounts will be further east.  That is subject to change depending on if the passage of the cold front should be delayed, but that is the way things stand at this time.

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As mentioned, the latest/greatest data runs continue to suggest the cold front arriving during the morning hours of Friday and will be followed by the coolest weather of the season to this point.  In fact, we may well have an inverted thermometer on Friday with the warmest time of the day early that morning before the front arrives followed by falling temperatures that afternoon.

The cooler, drier air will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s Saturday morning but the coldest night will likely be Sunday morning as skies will be clear and our winds should be light.  That should bring about a widespread freeze and would be the first ‘official’ freeze of the season for Tulsa.  This would be much later than the Nov 2 normal date for a first freeze but well short of the record latest first freeze of Nov 28.

However, this cold snap will be short lived and will be followed by another rebound going into Thanksgiving week.  A quick return to southerly winds will bring temperatures back to above normal levels as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook.  However, this period may also be more unsettled with chances of showers/storms for Thanksgiving week as also suggested by the 8-14 day precipitation outlook.

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By the way, the normal temperature range for Thanksgiving Day this year is 57/36 to provide some perspective.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot