Warmer Than Normal for Several More Days, Then the Bottom Drops Out.

Another very mild day today with temperatures in some cases more than 20 degrees above normal this afternoon.  Notice the high temperatures as recorded at the Mesonet sites around the state and the 70s that were common just to the south.  Officially, the max/min for Tulsa has been 65/43 as compared to the normal values of 47/28.  However, NW winds behind a cool front that moved through during the day today will cool things off for Thursday into Friday, but we will still be warmer than normal during the day.

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Fair skies tonight and those NW winds of 10 mph or so should result in temperatures dropping to the lower 30s by early morning and the wind chill will be in the 20s.  Lots of sunshine will offset to a certain extent a northerly wind all day and we should still make it into the low-mid 50s for Thursday afternoon.  Light winds and fair skies should result in a colder start to Friday morning with temperatures dropping into the 20s.

Friday will also have lots of sunshine, but our winds will have returned to a southerly direction and will become strong and gusty.  That will warm us back into the 50s during the day but the strength of the winds together with the ongoing drought conditions and relative humidity levels dropping into the low 20% range will make for an enhanced fire danger situation.

Those southerly winds will keep us from cooling off much Friday night as you can see on our forecast page followed by another very mild day for New Year’s Eve.  Another frontal boundary will be arriving that evening which could set off a few isolated showers for the more E/SE counties, but the chances even there are small and anything that does fall would be liquid and very light so no travel issues are currently anticipated. 

The northerly winds will make for a cooler start to Sunday but those winds will be quickly returning to a southerly direction later in the day and through the day Monday.  The upper level pattern will have some energy passing overhead so look for more cloud cover and at least a slight chance of a few showers for the Sunday/Monday time frame as well.  Notice the 7 day QPF continues to suggest only very limited rainfall, if we get any at all.

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Bottom line is that this year will end on a very mild note and the New Year will also start off very mild as you can see on the temperature trend graphic in comparison to what our normal daytime highs are like for this time of year.  As you can also see, that will be dramatically changing on Tuesday as much colder air will be invading the state and for that matter much of the rest of the country. 

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Typically, arctic air outbreaks come in a little faster than the model guidance would suggest as it is usually very shallow and therefore the intensity of the cold air is under estimated.  I mention that because I have gone significantly under guidance for temperatures on Tuesday and we may very well have an inverted thermometer; ie one where temperatures are warmer in the morning than during the afternoon.  At any rate, it certainly looks like a very short thermometer and gusty northerly winds will make it feel even colder.  That will be followed by the potential for several days in which temperatures fail to rise above the freezing level.

Although this does not appear to be as intense as the arctic outbreak we had the week before Christmas in that single digits or below zero readings are not currently anticipated, this does appear to be a longer lasting event.  Notice the 8-14 day guidance has a strong signal suggesting much below normal temperatures for a large part of the country. 

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As for our chances of precipitation during this extended period of cold, there are also some indications of at least some wintry weather for later next week.  That is by no means a given as the longer range guidance is showing very little model to model consistency, but would not be surprised if we have at least some wintry weather before it is all said and done.  Notice, the 8-14 day guidance is not particularly optimistic regarding much in the way of precipitation though.

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Of course, at this time of year, conditions can change rather rapidly so in the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot