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A Little Cooler Tuesday, Lots Cooler Rest of Week.

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No record today, at least not for Tulsa; but, the 40 degree temperature spread from a morning low of 32 to an afternoon high of 72 made for quite a change.  By the way, the record for today in Tulsa is 74 set back in 1931 and the normal values are 50/28.  Here are the max/min temperatures across the rest of the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet; also, McAlester did set a new record and OKC tied theirs for this date.

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The sunny skies and westerly wind contributed to those very warm temperatures as a west wind is a dry, down slope wind for us and that in turn leads to compressional warming.  Fortunately, the winds were not particularly strong or the fire danger would have been more of an issue as relative humidity values did drop below 20% during the heat of the day.

The very dry air in place together with fair skies overnight will result in a quick cool-down, but not as chilly as we were this morning.  Also, a weak frontal boundary will be pushing into the state overnight but this will not amount to much more than a wind shift and the boundary itself will likely stall out just north of I-40 by morning.  As a result, temperatures tonight should drop off into the upper 30s to near 40 to start the day Tuesday.

Lots of sunshine will prevail again during the day, but the position of that wind shift will have somewhat of an impact on temperatures.  The more southern counties will have a light S to SE wind and afternoon temperatures likely near 70 again.  North of the boundary, look for a more E/NE wind and afternoon highs in the low-mid 60s.  Still, a mighty nice day and wind speeds should be relatively light; generally less than 15 mph.

A stronger surge of cooler air will arrive Tuesday night followed by gusty NE winds for Wednesday, but still plenty of sunshine.  Look for morning lows to be near the freezing mark and daytime highs in the 50s.  However, those stronger winds will make the fire danger more of a concern.

Thursday and Friday will be even cooler, particularly with clouds returning to limit the daytime warming.  As you can see on our forecast page, there will also be a very slight chance of a few isolated showers for the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame, most likely for the far S/SE counties.  Moisture continues to be limited as the wind flow aloft lacks enough amplitude to really tap into a deeper layer of moisture and provide us with better rain chances; but, we will have overcast skies.

However, a stronger system aloft will be moving across the state Saturday keeping us with lots of clouds and the preliminary indications suggest a better chance of rain.  Not going to get too carried away with our prospects just yet as this system is still out in the Pacific Ocean so lots of uncertainty regarding its exact track and intensity.  At least there will be a better chance of showers for late Saturday and into the morning hours of Sunday, but as the 7 day QPF shows, the amounts that do fall will likely be on the light side.

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This system will also push another weak frontal boundary across the state with northerly winds for Sunday, but there should be enough afternoon sunshine for daytime highs to be near 50.  A quick return to southerly winds on Monday will moderate temperatures somewhat but clouds also look to quickly return along with a slight chance of a few showers. 

After that, the 8-14 day guidance suggests temperatures above normal once again along with little or no mention of rain.  There is still no indication of a significant storm system that would bring widespread precipitation for us anytime soon as the deeper moisture keeps getting shunted further to our east.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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