Hard Freeze Tonight.

After setting records yesterday, it stands to reason that the near normal temperatures of today have been quite a shock.  Notice how temperatures have changed over the course of the day since the midnight hour.  As you can see, the cold front arrived shortly after midnight followed by a rapid fall in temperatures and the gusty NW winds through the day kept us from recovering much this afternoon despite lots of sunshine.  One item of note is that the record book for today will show a high temperature of 74 because that was the warmest recorded for this date even though the warmest afternoon temperature has only been 53.  Also, the coolest temperature this morning was 41 but we will be near freezing by midnight tonight and that is what will go into the record book for the low temperature on this date.

[img]

At any rate, clear skies and light northerly winds will allow for maximum radiational cooling tonight and we can expect a hard freeze by morning.  The last time we had a freeze was two weeks ago which is just another indication of how warm this February has been.  In fact, as you can see on the graph, this is currently the warmest February on record with data up through today’s date.  By the way, it will not end up as the warmest on record as the cooler conditions of this weekend will keep that from happening.

[img]

After the very cold start, a light NW wind and lots of sunshine will allow temperatures to rebound nicely with afternoon highs on Saturday in the 50s to near 60.  By way of comparison, the normal max/min for this time of year is 56/34.

Sunday will also start off cold with morning lows near the freezing mark, but southerly winds and increasing cloud cover during the day should result in daytime highs again in the 50s to near 60.  A storm system aloft will be moving across the state Sunday night into Monday spreading showers and possibly some storms, most likely for the Sunday night through the Monday morning time period.  Also, the most likely areas for rain will be for the more E/SE counties as you can see on the 7 day QPF.  It is also apparent that we will be on the western fringe of the better quality moisture; again.

[img]

That system will be moving on eastward Monday afternoon leaving us with mostly cloudy skies and very mild temperatures for Monday night into Tuesday as you can see on our forecast page.  The next cold front will arrive later in the day Tuesday, but there is some question regarding moisture availability as there may not be enough time for the better quality moisture to make it back this way.  There will be another chance of showers/storms with this system, but any showers will be most likely for the more eastern counties and that may well linger into the Wednesday morning time frame.

Wednesday will be cooler and we could be near the freezing mark again for Thursday morning before another brief warm-up returns going into the weekend.  Another, stronger cold front now looks to be headed our way by that following Sunday providing another brief, but significant cool down but not much in the way of rainfall.

Looking further down the road into March, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal here in Green Country.  So, although periodic cool fronts are moving through, the cooling is short lived and on average, we are still running above normal with respect to temperature.  As you can see, our chances for any additional moisture of consequence continues to be below normal for that time period as well.

[img]

[img]

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot