Fire Danger High Again Today For Oklahoma

The fire danger will remain a big concern again today before some higher dew point temps move northward later tonight into Thursday offering increasing moisture profiles across eastern Oklahoma.   A few showers or storms will be possible Thursday but a better chance will arrive Saturday along with a noticeable cool-down for the weekend.   Highs today will move back into the lower or mid 70's along with increasing south to southwest winds from 15 to near 30 mph.   Red Flag Warnings will be required again for most of northern and western Oklahoma including the Tulsa metro.  

Weather Alerts

Temps are chilly this morning with some upper 20's and lower 30's across northern Oklahoma.  A surface ridge of high pressure is now shifting eastward as another fast-moving upper level disturbance will slide across the central plains Thursday into Friday.    Moisture currently to our south will surge northward later tonight.   Different solutions with a few of the model runs will offer differing timing for a few storms, but basically, we’ll have a chance Thursday for a few storms as a front nears the northern part of the state by the afternoon and evening hours.   The NAM data had suggested the boundary to our south this morning could remain intact and lift northward as a warm front providing a few storms Thursday morning across southeastern Oklahoma.   Either way, our pops will suffice for the Thursday period.  A few strong to near severe storms will be possible across far northeastern Oklahoma Thursday evening.  

WARN Interactive Radar

Friday into Saturday, another disturbance will quickly approach the area.  A surface low will quickly develop across northwestern OK and eject eastward across the state Saturday afternoon and evening dragging a cold front southward with a chance for showers and storms.   The timing of the system will have a big impact on the temps.   Most data support a faster arrival, which will lead to cooler-colder daytime highs Saturday along with shifting winds from the north by midday.  We may stay in the 50's for most of Saturday with morning to midday showers or some thunder.  This system does not appear to bring severe weather threats to northern Oklahoma, but there may be a few strong storms along the Red River Valley into North Texas.   This system will bring a chilly Sunday morning with lows in the lower 30's and highs only in the mid to upper 50's with most data supporting dry weather Sunday along with north winds at 10 to 15 mph.   There remain some uncertainty regarding Monday into Tuesday, but at this point, our chances for storms will remain very low until the middle of next week after another front zips across northern Oklahoma Monday morning to midday.   The data this morning has trended much colder for temps early next week for a few days.   Welcome to the battle of the seasons.  

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone