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Cooler, Chance Rain. Storms Friday.

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Notice the 24 hour temperature change map, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet.  Quite a change from yesterday for the more northern counties as a cold front is working its way slowly southward during the day.  Even so, given the record heat of yesterday, we are still well above normal as Tulsa has so far recorded 83/61 for the max/min today.  Click here to see the normal and record values for this date and for that matter any previous date.

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That cooler air will continue to sag southward tonight and will make a big difference in our weather for Wednesday.  A brisk NE wind for tonight will bring temperatures into the 50s and eventually bottoming out near the 50 degree mark by morning.  At the same time, a weak disturbance aloft will keep us overcast along with a chance of some patchy light rain, drizzle, or even a shower or two.  Might even be a rumble or two of thunder in some locations, but the main impact will be the very short thermometer.  With the overcast skies, some occasional showers, and an easterly wind component, temperatures will struggle to warm much and should pretty much stay in the 50s to near 60 at best.

WEATHER ALERTS

A few lingering showers may extend into the early morning hours of Thursday, but the cloud cover should be thinning out by afternoon and with a return to a gusty SE wind, look for a much warmer day as you can see on our forecast page.

WARN Interactive Radar

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Friday looks to be more interesting as a stronger system aloft will be moving across the state and will spread showers and storms eastward.  The data currently suggests the potential for a line of storms to form out west that morning and be moving through Green Country by early afternoon.  Although the instability does not appear to be overly impressive at this time, the dynamics will be very strong with gusty SE surface winds and a very strong, veering wind profile aloft.  The strength of the winds may be enough to offset the limited instability and there will be at least a chance of some of those storms to be severe with primarily a wind/hail threat the way it looks at this point.

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Some lingering showers and thunder will be possible into the morning hours of Saturday as the main upper level system moves overhead.  Systems such as this have the potential to produce a few, locally very heavy storms due to the cold core aloft even though surface parameters are not very favorable. Just something to watch out for during the Saturday morning time frame.  By the afternoon, the upper level storm should have moved on eastward leaving us with plenty of afternoon sunshine, but a more NW wind should help hold temperatures at least somewhat in check.

Sunday should then start off with fair to partly cloudy skies but yet another chance of showers and storms is expected along about Sunday night or into the Monday morning time frame.  This will be due to another upper level storm moving in quickly on the heels of the Friday night system.  In fact, as you can see on the upper level wind map, valid for Friday night, I have labeled a progression of storm systems that are expected to impact our weather over the coming days as #1, #2, and #3.  #1 is what will impact our weather on Friday, #2 is expected to amplify and bring the next chance of storms along about Sunday night, and #3 is also expected to amplify and bring another chance of storms along about the middle of next week.  In other words we look to have a more active weather pattern with systems coming our way every couple of days.

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Notice also the 7 day QPF has become a little more optimistic regarding our rainfall totals.  Although we remain on the western fringe of the highest projected rains, the trend is for the heavier amounts to shift further westward.  Bottom line is some folks may get a good soaking over the coming week or so.  Hopefully, the more western counties will also pick up some good rains.

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Looking beyond that time frame, the 8-14 day trends continue to suggest a wetter than normal pattern going into early April along with a warmer than normal pattern.  In other words, after tomorrow, our weather will definitely have a Spring-like feel..

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.  Now that we are ‘officially’ into Spring, it could get interesting in the weeks ahead.

Dick Faurot

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